Bombers need to play patient game to beat Roughriders

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 05/11/2018 (2311 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

In the Western semifinal on Sunday, you will see the team with the second-best record in the CFL, versus the team with the fourth.

If we look at the league statistics up to week 20, one of these teams is first in points scored in the CFL and second in fewest points allowed. The other team is sixth in points scored, and fourth in points allowed. One of these teams has scored 50 offensive touchdowns — the best in the league. The other has scored 25 offensive touchdowns — second to last.

One of these teams is number one in the turnover ratio with plus-14 takeaways. The other is at plus-6, which is good for third. One of these teams is the least penalized in the league, and the other is one of the most penalized. One is fifth overall in pass completions, the other is ninth, or dead last. And at the most important position on the field, one has a QB rating of 78.9 — good for third in the league. The other has a rating of 54.5 — second to worst.

So, how is a team on the short end of all these measuring sticks the one that’s 12 and 6 on the season, hosting the western semi-final, and has beaten the Bombers two out of three times? Well, in many instances, statistics don’t tell the whole story. And while the Saskatchewan Roughriders may not be very good at a lot of things, they are very, very good at a few things.

Largely, there are only two impactful measurables that the Roughriders are much better at than the Bombers. They are number one in the CFL with 15 return touchdowns. Whether it’s a punt return, a kickoff return, or a missed field goal return, nobody has scored more majors than Saskatchewan in this regard. For the sake of comparison, Winnipeg is fourth in the league with a total of six return touchdowns.

The other thing Saskatchewan has excelled at this year is defensive return touchdowns. Once again, they are number one in the league with 11 defensive touchdowns that have either come from fumble recoveries or interception returns. That’s some sort of record, and over twice as many defensive scoring touchdowns than Winnipeg’s very good defence has managed.

So what does this tell us? If the Blue Bombers’ cover teams have a good game keeping the Roughrider returners in check, and if Matt Nichols is accurate, smart and deliberate with the football — as he usually is — then this game should look a lot more like the 31-0 game in week 18 than the back-to-back losses in week 12 and 13. If Winnipeg wins the turnover battle, which they are also number one at in the CFL, then they also, almost certainly, win this game too.

The Saskatchewan offence often needs help from both its defence and special teams to score enough points to win games. If forced to operate on their own, independently, their results are, on average, underwhelming.

Conversely, when the two primary phases of your football team are fundamentally sound — like the Bombers’ — you need decidedly fewer things to go your way to win games. Your defence just needs long fields to defend, and to not spend all of its time on the field. Your offence just needs the ball in its hands enough times, and some decent field position, and it can handle the rest on its own too.

Saskatchewan wants and needs this game to be erratic, volatile and emotional. They need Winnipeg to try to do too much, too soon, and to play outside of themselves. Winnipeg just needs to slow play this game and focus on precision, execution and, above all else, ball security. As hard as that can be in an emotionally charged playoff game in a hostile environment, they also need to take a deep breath, regulate that breathing and be methodical in their approach. If they don’t panic, if they take what the defence gives them, and if they don’t force the ball downfield, they should win handily. Fundamentally, they are more sound than their counterparts, and a more balanced football team.

It appears highly unlikely the Roughriders can beat this team straight up, or without the benefit and aid of short fields, turnovers or special teams scores. If the Bombers play a patient game, and don’t make uncharacteristic missteps, everything points to them being successful on game day.

Doug Brown, once a hard-hitting defensive lineman and frequently a hard-hitting columnist, appears weekly in the Free Press.

Twitter: @DougBrown97