Time for Putin to grasp the reality he faces By: Editorial Posted: 7:00 PM CST Monday, Dec. 5, 2022

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 04/12/2022 (751 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron were dropping broad hints last week that Russia could end its war against Ukraine if it would sit down and negotiate peace terms.

The reply from Russian President Vladimir Putin showed he might be ready to talk, as long as the western powers let him have the parts of Ukraine he wants.

The Russian response is unrealistic. Mr. Putin’s pretended annexation of eastern Ukrainian provinces was an empty gesture, since he later withdrew his troops from territory west of the Dnieper River. Ukraine, and its allies and sympathizers, have no reason to grant Mr. Putin any part of Ukraine – certainly not territory he tried to seize by force and then surrendered.

Mr. Putin’s response did not, however, repeat former Russian demands that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization must renounce eastward expansion and Ukraine must agree never to join the organization. If Russia truly has abandoned those earlier demands, that may be a sign of increasing realism in the Kremlin and a reflection of the Russian army’s failure to conquer Ukraine.

Once Mr. Putin recognizes he cannot defeat Ukraine either by torturing and murdering civilians or by destroying their electric power grid, he may conclude negotiation is his only way out of the war he foolishly started by invading Ukraine last February.

Two recent opinion surveys in Russia found solid majorities of Russians want their government to negotiate peace with Ukraine. The British defense ministry said it had obtained a copy of an opinion survey conducted on behalf of the Kremlin security service, showing 55 per cent of respondents wanted peace talks with Ukraine, while 25 per cent want the war to continue.

An independent poll found 53 per cent favoured peace talks and 41 per cent favoured continuing the war.

In a brutal dictatorship such as Mr. Putin’s Russia, public opinion carries only so much weight. The president will, however, face great difficulty signing up recruits for his army to continue a war the public does not support.

Once Mr. Putin recognizes he cannot defeat Ukraine either by torturing and murdering civilians or by destroying their electric power grid, he may conclude negotiation is his only way out of the war he foolishly started by invading Ukraine last February

Avril Haines, the U.S. director of national intelligence, said on the weekend her agencies believe Mr. Putin has recently received more accurate evaluations of his army’s performance than he had been receiving previously. His Kremlin entourage may have been sugar-coating the news of Russian defeats and retreats; Mr. Putin’s most recent orders seem to reflect fuller recognition of his army’s weakness in the face of Ukrainian forces.

In these conditions, Canada and its allies should keep increasing the pressure on Russia and increasing support for Ukraine. Ukrainian power utilities should be given the best equipment and technical support to restore power lines and power stations knocked out of service by Russian missile attacks.

Ukrainian air-defence forces should receive the best equipment available and the training to use it. The European price for exported Russian oil, now set at US$60, should be adjusted gradually downward as European governments find other sources of supply.

Mr. Macron of France, who speaks regularly to Mr. Putin, should warn him that the Biden administration’s support for Ukraine will continue even after the House of Representatives in January falls under the control of Republicans, some of whom want to disengage from the war in Ukraine.

He should urge the Russian president to listen to his best military advisers, recognize the damage he has already inflicted on his country and quit this war before the damage gets worse.