Mexico will play key role in Venezuela’s future By: Editorial Posted: 7:00 PM CST Monday, Feb. 25, 2019

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 24/02/2019 (2132 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland and her colleagues in the Lima Group of countries concerned about Venezuela should patiently continue inviting defections from President Nicolás Maduro’s army and paramilitary forces. They should involve Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador in the transition plan for Venezuela.

Lima Group foreign ministers met on Monday in Bogota, Colombia, to consider what to do next about Mr. Maduro, who is clinging to power in Venezuela though he has impoverished his once-wealthy country and subjugated it to Cuba, Russia and China. The civilian public has turned against him, but his military forces and neighbourhood surveillance forces remain loyal. A few soldiers defected to his rival, National Assembly President Juan Guaidó, but not enough to shake Mr. Maduro’s hold on power.

Mr. López Obrador, a man of the left like Mr. Maduro, stands aloof from the common front of countries trying to remove the Venezuelan dictator. He is unwilling to take sides between Mr. Maduro and Mr. Guaidó. He says he wants to uphold constitutional rule, which he thinks justifies ignoring the election fraud and brutal police-state methods that keep Mr. Maduro in power. While Mr. López Obrador stays on the fence, the other Lima Group countries will have a tough time driving Mr. Maduro out.

In a weekend of drama at the Colombia-Venezuela border, trucks loaded with U.S.-supplied food and medicines attempted to enter Venezuela to relieve the starving people. Mr. Maduro’s troops at the border remained loyal and stopped the trucks. U.S. Vice-President Mike Pence announced in Bogotá on Monday that the U.S. was imposing sanctions on the border-state Venezuelan governors implicated in those operations. Mr. Maduro, however, remained in power.

The United States is known throughout Latin America for its old habit of sending the marines or the Central Intelligence Agency to get rid of political leaders it dislikes and installing governments subservient to U.S. policy. The administration of President Donald Trump keeps saying all options are on the table, intimating that the old imperial era may not have ended — the marines and the CIA might still be used. The U.S. sabre-rattling, though ambiguous and low-key, has to discourage Mr. López Obrador from joining the Lima Group efforts.

Canada is a special friend of both Mexico and the U.S. Ms. Freeland should invite them to work together on Venezuela. It would cost the U.S. nothing to say it isn’t sending in the marines. It would cost Mexico nothing to join the regional consensus and denounce Mr. Maduro’s illegal hold on power. If those two speak with one voice, Mr. Maduro’s goose will be pretty well cooked.

Meanwhile, a lamp should be kept in the window inviting Mr. Maduro’s soldiers to defect. Cuba will probably continue as long as it can propping up Mr. Maduro because it needs his oil, but Cuba is poor and can’t accept the expense indefinitely. The Lima Group countries should show they have the means and the patience to keep the pressure on indefinitely. Mexico could help by assuring Cuba of an alternate source of oil.

Canada is unlikely to be the architect of a political settlement in Venezuela. Our role in the region is too small to command attention. Canada may, however, be helpful in recognizing who the architects will be and urging them to agree on a plan.