Cautious optimism gives way to great NDP expectations By: Dan Lett Posted: 7:00 PM CDT Monday, Oct. 17, 2022

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 16/10/2022 (703 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The secret is finally out: the New Democratic Party of Manitoba fully and confidently expects to win the 2023 provincial election.

That may not seem like news to some. For much of the past two years, the NDP has been enjoying a commanding lead over the governing Progressive Conservatives in public opinion polls.

At the same time, NDP Leader Wab Kinew and senior advisers have been trying to dial down the buzz over the poll results and dampen expectations among its elected caucus and militant party members. Celebrating an election victory months — if not years — before an election is held is a sure-fire way to anger the political gods.

Better to be cautiously optimistic than overly confident. Voters will allow the former but regularly punish politicians for the latter.

Even so, cautious optimism was abandoned this past weekend, as the NDP gathered for its annual general meeting, the last before the 2023 election (which must be held on or before Oct. 3).

The party debated resolutions that, for the first time in seven years, have a real chance of becoming government policy. Rank and file members cheered robustly when more than 30 candidates — a mix of current MLAs and newcomers -— were introduced as a presumptive government-in-waiting.

Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley, author of perhaps the most improbable victory of any provincial NDP leader when she became premier (2015-19), received a standing ovation for an impassioned keynote address.

However, the strongest evidence of the mounting expectations might have been the decision to use the AGM to unveil Brian Topp as manager of the 2023 campaign.

Topp is widely credited with helping Notley to her historic majority win and guiding leader Jack Layton to the NDP’s best federal finish — a remarkable 103 seats and official Opposition status — in 2011.

Topp’s presence in Manitoba is a crystal clear sign the NDP is going into the 2023 campaign with unambiguous expectations of nothing less than a huge win.

Of course, along with the potential rewards Topp’s involvement represents, there is a high degree of risk. Just ask the British Columbia NDP.

In 2013, the NDP was way ahead in the polls and poised to end nearly two decades of Liberal government.

In 2013, the NDP was way ahead in the polls and poised to end nearly two decades of Liberal government.

B.C. premier Gordon Campbell had limped out of politics after botching the introduction of the Harmonized Sales Tax. His successor, Christy Clark, had struggled to restore the Liberal brand; when the writ was dropped in April, she trailed leader Adrian Dix and the NDP in some polls by 16 points.

When the votes were finally counted May 14, however, support for the Liberals had inexplicably surged and Clark won a majority — her party’s fourth in a row — with an increase in seats.

In an internal post-mortem report, Topp admitted to some errors in judgement but largely tried to lay the defeat at Dix’s feet. The report was seen as an act of political dodgery that put a blemish on Topp’s record.

Topp comes to Manitoba in what must be an alarming parallel to the situation he faced in B.C.: an Opposition NDP party running high in the polls and preparing for an election against a governing party that just ditched an extremely unpopular leader and installed someone new who is struggling to connect with voters.

If the B.C. NDP’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory provides any lesson to the NDP in Manitoba, it is nothing in politics can be taken for granted.

If Premier Heather Stefanson’s Tory government goes down to defeat next year, it will represent one of the greatest train wrecks in the province’s political history. In 2016, the PCs and then-leader Brian Pallister won a thunderous majority government, driven in large part by an implosion of the governing NDP under Greg Selinger.

Of course, even with a deeply wounded NDP government, the Tories still had to run a good campaign, and they so under the stewardship of another out-of-town hired gun, David McLaughlin.

He not only delivered a lean and low-key campaign — allowing an unpopular NDP to remind voters why they were so unpopular — he managed to keep the party’s greatest liability (Pallister) in check.

If Premier Heather Stefanson’s Tory government goes down to defeat next year, it will represent one of the greatest train wrecks in the province’s political history.

Seven years later, Pallister and McLaughlin are long gone and the Tories are teetering on the edge of an improbable defeat.

For Topp, the biggest challenge may be this isn’t a situation where he is simply expected to come-from-behind and exceed expectations. This is more like B.C.: an election where the party he will direct is carrying the unbearable weight of expectation.

Topp knows intimately the rush that comes from exceeding expectations, and the crushing disappointment of failing to live up to them. That just might make him the perfect man for this job.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Dan Lett
Columnist

Born and raised in and around Toronto, Dan Lett came to Winnipeg in 1986, less than a year out of journalism school with a lifelong dream to be a newspaper reporter.

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