Privileges for fully vaccinated key to reaching high immunization rate By: Tom Brodbeck Posted: 7:00 PM CDT Tuesday, Jun. 29, 2021

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 28/06/2021 (1277 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The provincial government will not only reach its goal of fully immunizing 50 per cent of Manitobans by Aug. 2, it will likely hit that benchmark almost a month early.

With hundreds of thousands of doses of COVID-19 vaccine now pouring into the province, Manitoba could see 60 per cent of people fully immunized by late next week. That’s good news in the race between vaccines and more contagious variants, especially the delta strain, which has become the dominant variant in many parts of the world (it’s still contained in Manitoba) and has stalled reopening plans in some countries.

Manitoba’s vaccine task force administered over 35,000 doses Monday, by far the highest in a single day. About 27,000 doses were scheduled for Tuesday at super sites, pop-up clinics and mobile units. The projection for this week is close to 220,000 doses.

Second shots make up the vast majority of doses administered. Only a few thousand a day are for initial doses. The percentage of people with at least one shot has been growing at a snail’s pace in June. There’s been a small uptick over the past week, but it’s only growing around a percentage point every four days. As of Tuesday, 73.2 per cent of Manitobans aged 12 and over had at least one dose. It will likely reach 75 per cent by the middle of next week (well ahead of the province’s Aug. 2 target for first doses).

Second doses are growing much faster. Nearly 40 per cent of Manitobans over 12 are now fully immunized. That number is growing almost two percentage points a day. It could hit 60 per cent by July 9 or 10.

Vaccine supply is not expected to be a factor in the coming weeks. The disruption in Pfizer deliveries announced earlier this month appears to be resolved. According to Ottawa’s vaccine schedule updated Tuesday, Manitoba will receive 113,490 doses of Pfizer the third week of July and 133,490 doses the week after. That makes up for reduced shipments earlier in the month. It’s particularly good news for youth aged 12-17, who are only eligible for the Pfizer vaccine.

The biggest challenge now is how to push immunization rates over 80 per cent, the level most experts say should be reached before eliminating public health orders.

Meanwhile, Manitoba is set to receive 141,680 doses of Moderna this weekend and 51,240 next week. All told, the province is expected to receive at least 525,000 doses of combined Pfizer and Moderna in July, not including whatever Moderna ships during the second half of the month. As of Tuesday, the province had over 200,000 doses on hand for super sites, pop-up clinics and focused immunization teams.

Getting above that level will be a challenge. It likely won’t happen without more vaccine incentives, including tougher rules around accessing public places.

The biggest challenge now is how to push immunization rates over 80 per cent, the level most experts say should be reached before eliminating public health orders.

Further details about community outreach programs unveiled by the Pallister government Tuesday will undoubtedly help encourage more vaccine-hesitant people to get their first shot, especially among those with language and cultural barriers. If uptake for first doses continues at the current rate, Manitoba could see 80 per cent of people with at least one shot by the end of July.

Getting above that level will be a challenge. It likely won’t happen without more vaccine incentives, including tougher rules around accessing public places.

The more people realize they may not be able to enter bars, restaurants, amusement centres, sporting facilities, museums, art galleries and concert halls without being fully vaccinated, the more likely they are to get immunized. It’s the kind of tough love Manitoba will likely need to return to normal.

So far, only indoor dining at restaurants (for mixed households) and visits to nursing homes are restricted to those who are fully vaccinated. The province has said it plans to extend that to large-scale sporting and arts events, but few details have been released. Other than being exempt from self-isolating when travelling interprovincially, or as a close contact to a COVID-19 case, there are few additional benefits.

The sooner that list is expanded, the faster Manitoba will get its vaccination rates above 80 per cent. If it does, the province could reach 85 per cent by the fall.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca