Manitoba right on the mark with reopening plan By: Tom Brodbeck Posted: 7:00 PM CDT Thursday, Jun. 24, 2021

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 23/06/2021 (1280 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

There are a few reasons why Manitoba will likely avoid a surge in COVID-19 cases after the province eases restrictions Saturday.

The most significant, and obvious, is that nearly three-quarters of eligible Manitobans have received at least one dose of the vaccine. While only 31 per cent of Manitobans over the age of 12 have the required two shots, that number is climbing rapidly. With new shipments of the Moderna vaccine announced Thursday, the province has projected 60 per cent of eligible Manitobans will be fully vaccinated by the second week of July.

Manitoba didn’t have that level of vaccine protection in April when the B.1.1.7 variant caused widespread infection and overwhelmed hospitals last month. Fewer than one-quarter of Manitobans had received one dose by mid-April (most were over the age of 60). That left unvaccinated people in their 30s, 40s and 50s vulnerable to the B.1.1.7 variant. Many ended up in hospital and in critical-care units. Those age groups are now far better protected.

Studies have shown that one dose of the vaccine is less effective against the newer, more contagious Delta variant (the B.1.617.2 strain first detected in India). However, a single shot does offer some protection. Unlike having little to no vaccine immunity against the B.1.1.7 variant in April and May, the majority of Manitobans have at least some defence against all strains.

Still, strict public health measures are required to keep the Delta variant at bay for at least another month, while second doses ramp up. It’s debatable exactly what those restrictions should be, but the new public health orders announced this week seem adequate.

Unlike provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan, which are throwing their economies wide open in July, Manitoba’s restrictions are still relatively strict.

Many indoor facilities will remain closed, including movie theatres, casinos, libraries and museums. Public schools are shuttered for the summer and indoor household visits (a significant source of spread) remain off-limits.

Retail outlets and places of worship will expand to 25 per cent capacity, but mandatory masks are still in effect in all indoor public places. Even hair salons and other personal services, which can reopen at 50 per cent capacity, must be by appointment only.

Some aspects of the reopening plan are riskier than others, such as allowing unvaccinated people from different households to dine and socialize on outdoor patios. However, with existing vaccine coverage, the potential spread in those settings is far lower than it was at the beginning of the third wave.

There’s an added feature to the Pallister government’s reopening plan that will help keep transmission low: new incentives to get fully vaccinated.

There’s an added feature to the Pallister government’s reopening plan that will help keep transmission low: new incentives to get fully vaccinated. Manitobans with two shots can already visit nursing homes and travel to other provinces without having to self-isolate upon return. Added to the list this week for the fully vaccinated is dining indoors at restaurants with people from other households and attending large-scale arts and sporting events.

The province says it intends to expand that list. The message is clear: if people want to enjoy the things they did before the pandemic — such as going to concerts and restaurants with friends — they will have to get fully immunized. It may not have an immediate effect on transmission, but it will convince some who still haven’t had their first shot to get one as soon as possible (which will reduce transmissions two to three weeks from now).

The number of cases of the Delta variant in Manitoba is still relatively small (165 cases reported as of Thursday). It’s not spreading out of control, but it has the potential to. It likely would grow exponentially without adequate public health measures, at least until enough people are vaccinated.

Cases and infection rates in Manitoba have declined sharply in recent weeks. Under the new orders, there’s no reason to believe cases will start to climb again. The Pallister government is striking the right balance between reopening safely and guarding against a fourth wave.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom has been covering Manitoba politics since the early 1990s and joined the Winnipeg Free Press news team in 2019.

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