Projected vaccination timeline a welcome ray of hope By: Tom Brodbeck Posted: 7:00 PM CST Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2021

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 26/01/2021 (1383 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

If the provincial government’s goal was to give Manitobans hope that life could return to something close to normal by the end of August, they did a pretty good job of it Wednesday.

Fresh projections released by public health officials show that if new vaccines are approved by Health Canada (as expected in the coming months), about 70 per cent of Manitoba adults could be immunized by the end of August.

Experts say herd immunity is typically achieved when 60 to 70 per cent of the population is vaccinated. It wouldn’t necessarily mean people could start crowding into Bell MTS Place or doffing their masks by late August. But it may allow people to gather in small- to medium-sized groups again, play sports, frequent bars and restaurants or catch a live band.

The projections are based on a “high supply” scenario, where Manitoba would receive 700,000 doses of currently unapproved vaccines (such as the AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines) by the third quarter of 2021. If it does, and the province gets its expected allotment of vaccines already approved, the final cohort of Manitobans (aged 18-29) could be inoculated by Aug. 31.

There are a lot of “ifs” in that scenario, but it is the most realistic projection so far.

The province also has a “low supply” scenario, the one presented earlier this month, where 70 per cent of eligible Manitobans could be vaccinated by Dec. 31. That one presumes no new vaccines will be approved in 2021, which is highly unlikely.

 

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Manitobans could use some hope right now. The Aug. 31 projection gives people a tangible timeline they can look forward to as they slog through what is likely to be several more months of shutdowns and government restrictions. The social isolation and economic hardship caused by the pandemic have taken their toll. The new timeline may provide a light at the end of the tunnel, even if it is a distant one.

There are many factors that could derail Manitoba’s latest immunization projection. The most obvious is the federal government’s ability to secure the vaccines it has procured. The recent Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine setback was a stark example of how easily the supply chain can be disrupted.

Still, there is no reason to believe those shipments won’t be back on schedule by the end of March, as committed to by Pfizer.

The other potential factor is how well the province can organize an immunization campaign of this magnitude. The first few weeks were not promising: the Pallister government stumbled out of the gates, falling well behind other provinces in getting needles into arms. The only reason they’re now catching up is because of the Pfizer delay.

More than a month after launching the program, the province is still assembling its immunization team and figuring out the logistics of distributing some 1.5 million doses in under a year. There is no timeline, for example, on when residents in personal care homes who missed the first round of shots will get their second dose. It’s an appalling oversight for such a high-risk group.

That’s not to say the province won’t eventually get it right. The Pfizer delay is giving them time to plan and they appear to be making progress.

People are tired of pandemic politics. They just want governments to deliver.

Manitobans need an endgame. If the government wants continued compliance with public health orders, it needs to clearly communicate how and when it plans to roll out its vaccination program. It needs to do it without the politically charged language we’ve heard so far (including self-serving claims by provincial officials that Manitoba is doing better than other provinces on its rollout). And it needs to stop pretending all its problems are tied to the Pfizer slowdown or shortcomings in Ottawa’s procurement efforts.

People are tired of pandemic politics. They just want governments to deliver.

The Aug. 31 projection, while not set in stone, is a good start. It may be the shot in the arm many Manitobans need right now.

wfppdf:https://wfpquantum.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/2021/21616_DECK_Vaccination Tech Briefing 27Jan2021.pdf|Vaccination task force update:wfppdf