Data models show COVID-19 could have hit twice as hard Pandemic measures 'put us in the position that we're in today': Roussin By: Dylan Robertson and Danielle Da Silva Posted: 7:15 PM CDT Wednesday, Apr. 29, 2020 Last Modified: 7:26 PM CDT Wednesday, Apr. 29, 2020 Updates

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Data models projecting the prevalence of COVID-19 in Manitoba suggest severe public health orders that shuttered businesses, delayed health care, and disrupted education and livelihoods reduced the province’s potential caseload by half.

Provincial chief public health officer Dr. Brent Roussin released for the first time Wednesday the latest projections used by public health officials to guide the government’s response to the novel coronavirus.

The data modelling projected Manitoba would have hit roughly 1,000 cases of COVID-19 on May 1 had only minimal public health interventions been put in place. The first case of COVID-19 was identified in Manitoba on March 12.

With the public health orders currently in effect, the province is projecting slightly fewer than 500 cases by the same date.

“The measures that we implemented were much stronger than what we would say is minimal public health interventions — all those interventions that we’ve talked about with social distancing, the orders, travel restrictions is what put us in the position that we’re in today,” Roussin said.

“As Manitobans have all stepped up and kept our numbers down, now we can loosen some of these restrictions.”

Manitoba was one of the last provinces to release its numbers and unlike many other jurisdictions, did not include projected deaths.

Roussin said Manitoba could reach 500 cases by May 8. The current caseload sits below projected numbers — with 273 cases recorded on Wednesday — but is still within the range of possibility.

“As Manitobans have all stepped up and kept our numbers down, now we can loosen some of these restrictions.”
– Provincial chief public health officer Dr. Brent Roussin

Former chief public health officer of Canada Dr. David Butler-Jones said models are best used to look retrospectively at how outbreaks could have gone if left unchecked.

“Models are not predictive; they give you a set of potential changes,” said Butler-Jones. “They’re generally more useful in terms of ‘If we hadn’t done X, it would have looked like this.’”

And while forecasts can be unreliable, Roussin said the province is projecting as many as 6,250 cases over the course of a year, if current restrictions were to be maintained. The novel coronavirus has a mortality rate of two to three per cent.

Roussin’s predecessor, Dr. Joel Kettner, was critical over the lack of transparency in how Manitoba made its modelling.

“I’m a bit disappointed that there’s no real description of what the modelling method was, or what kind of input-information they used in the model,” said Kettner, a University of Manitoba professor in community health.

“The public is more likely to do what they’re being asked to do if they understand and trust the people that are asking them to do it, especially if it’s really restricting their normal behaviour and interfering with the quality of their lives, not to mention their income.”

With non-essential businesses set to resume operations Monday — with strict physical-distancing guidelines in place — Kettner said Manitoba’s entire public conversation now surrounds those measures, but there is no modelling to help understand policymakers’ goals and expectations.

Manitobans are also unable to compare the impact of opening retail spaces and other businesses against maintaining current restrictions, or other interim measures.

“I have not seen ever a comparison of different strategies, in terms of the outcomes; all that we’ve seen is a comparison of if everybody complies with the distancing, with what happens if nobody complies.”

Roussin said his team is currently running models to determine what potential case numbers could be expected with the easing of restrictions.

“Those are things that we’re going to adjust and revisit and share again as time goes on,” he said.

“We want to ensure that we continue to detect cases early, to isolate cases, and do aggressive contact management. It’s going to be a large part of our strategy going forward.”
– Dr. Brent Roussin

The province’s top doctor also said he’s comfortable with the relaxed restrictions and confident in current capacity of the health-care system to respond to increased demands.

“Manitoba now has quite a broad testing criteria,” Roussin said. “We want to ensure that we continue to detect cases early, to isolate cases, and do aggressive contact management. It’s going to be a large part of our strategy going forward.”

Butler-Jones echoed Roussin and said Manitobans have followed the strict policies so far, and will likely keep a distance from each other and wear masks.

Even at a patio with nachos, he expects people won’t be sharing a sip of their beer.

“Some modification of this is probably going to stick with us, and people are generally going to be more cautious,” Butler-Jones said.

“At a certain point, it starts to get really wearing, and we’re seeing that in terms of impacts on mental health… plus frustration with not being able to have a normal life,” he said. “Especially when our summers are so short.”

Kettner added the existing lockdown is likely making some Manitobans more ill, due to postponed treatments and surgeries. He was also stunned the province had nothing to say about how many deaths could come, even if the number was too absract to be helpful.

“Some would say it’s the most important information to project,” said Kettner, who stressed that public-health officials are doing well in an evolving situation.

“I think it’s hard to maintain trust with the public if all you’re doing is smoothing this over… without giving information that is transparent, that is explainable, that is logical; where you show your thinking and where you allow others in a democratic society to ask questions and challenge the premises.”

danielle.dasilva@freepress.mb.ca

dylan.robertson@freepress.mb.ca