Debates commissioner opens door to televised train wreck

The first major flip-flop of the 2019 federal election campaign does not belong to a politician.

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Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 18/09/2019 (1962 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The first major flip-flop of the 2019 federal election campaign does not belong to a politician.

A little more than a month ago, debates commissioner David Johnston looked at all of the parties vying to be included in two commission-sanctioned debates and decided Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada did not meet the eligibility criteria. And, for all intents and purposes, it did not.

This week, however, Johnston announced, after further consideration, the PPC was going to be included.

If you’re a bit confused, don’t worry; this is a pretty confusing decision, particularly when you consider the three-ring circus that is the PPC.

CHRIS YOUNG / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES 
People's Party of Canada leader Maxime Bernier visits the campaign office of candidate Renata Ford, widow of late Toronto mayor Rob Ford.
CHRIS YOUNG / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES People's Party of Canada leader Maxime Bernier visits the campaign office of candidate Renata Ford, widow of late Toronto mayor Rob Ford.

Bernier’s vanity political project is a potpourri of libertarian whim and unbridled xenophobic rhetoric. The PPC leader has promised to expunge official multiculturalism, has railed against something he calls “mass immigration,” and lustily rejects the idea of climate change.

Bernier should not be excluded from the debate because his ideas border on the chronically misinformed and empirically challenged. We all expected him to be excluded because, according to the commission’s published criteria, the PPC did not qualify.

The commission uses three main criterion to determine eligibility: the party is already represented in Parliament; the party intends to run candidates in at least 90 per cent of ridings; the party received at least four per cent of the popular vote in the previous election or (and this is where things get a bit messy) based on the “recent political context, public opinion polls and previous election results” the commission believes the party has a legitimate chance to elect someone.

The PPC cannot claim a sitting MP. It has, however, nominated candidates in all 338 ridings.

ADRIAN WYLD / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES 
Steven Fletcher, the PPC candidate for Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, was identified by debates commissioner David Johnston as one of the PPC candidates with a legitimate chance of winning.
ADRIAN WYLD / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES Steven Fletcher, the PPC candidate for Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, was identified by debates commissioner David Johnston as one of the PPC candidates with a legitimate chance of winning.

On the issue of public support and “recent political context,” the PPC does not appear to meet the standard.

Nanos Research gives the PPC about two per cent support nationally; Eric Grenier’s CBC poll tracker (which uses an average of all polls) has PPC at 2.7 per cent. Even the Bloc Québécois, which only runs candidates in Quebec, registers higher support in national polls.

The Conservative party, in a submission to the debate commission designed to stymie the PPC bid, noted the last time any party with less than three per cent national support won a seat was in 1949. In the 2008 election, the Green party could not win a seat despite receiving 6.7 per cent of the national vote.

How did Johnston come to reverse his decision? The commission decided to pay for its own polls in four ridings (three in Ontario and one in Winnipeg) where the PPC claimed to be competitive.

One of those candidates is Steven Fletcher (Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley).

In using Fletcher’s riding as evidence of the untapped potential of the PPC, Johnston reveals just how little he knows about Fletcher and Manitoba politics.

Perhaps the PPC will catch on and the election results will mitigate any continued concern about whether Bernier should have been involved in the debates. Or, perhaps the PPC will tank and we’ll be wondering what Johnston was thinking when he welcomed a man who leads a party that has already been tied to so many offensive ideas.

To be blunt, Fletcher is this province’s foremost political vagabond, having been ejected, disqualified or overlooked by just about every right-of-centre party other than the PPC.

Fletcher wore out his welcome with the federal Conservatives, was kicked out of cabinet and then lost his seat in the 2015 election. He found salvation in Premier Brian Pallister’s PC government, but was ultimately ejected from caucus for various acts of insubordination.

Fletcher tried to circle back for a comeback with the federal Conservatives, only to be rejected as a potential candidate. He briefly assumed the leadership of the fledgling Manitoba Party, although he was later accused of essentially usurping the role when no one was looking.

JUSTIN TANG / THE CANADIAN PRESS
Maxime Bernier's platform is 'a potpourri of libertarian whim and unbridled xenophobic rhetoric,' Dan Lett writes.
JUSTIN TANG / THE CANADIAN PRESS Maxime Bernier's platform is 'a potpourri of libertarian whim and unbridled xenophobic rhetoric,' Dan Lett writes.

As a PPC candidate, Fletcher has been dogged by allegations from his former federal Conservative riding association he pilfered office equipment, election materials and voter identification data. Fletcher has denied the allegations, but he has been putting up signs for his current PPC campaign that, are in fact, from his previous Conservative campaigns.

All of which means riding poll or no riding poll, Fletcher is far from a safe bet in the upcoming election — even though, by virtue of the commission’s polling, he has actually gained an advantage over his opponents.

Perhaps the PPC will catch on and the election results will mitigate any continued concern about whether Bernier should have been involved in the debates. Or, perhaps the PPC will tank and we’ll be wondering what Johnston was thinking when he welcomed a man who leads a party that has already been tied to so many offensive ideas.

SEAN KILPATRICK / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES 
David Johnston, the debates commissioner for Elections Canada, concluded the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance of electing candidates.
SEAN KILPATRICK / THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES David Johnston, the debates commissioner for Elections Canada, concluded the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance of electing candidates.

Bernier is guaranteed to make the leaders debates more interesting and more inflammatory. He will likely function as the political equivalent of a nationally televised train wreck, saying outrageous things and prompting spirited exchanges.

However, as entertaining as all that may well turn out to be, morbid curiosity is not one of the criterion for determining debate eligibility. Let’s hope the debates commission remembers that in future years.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Dan Lett

Dan Lett
Columnist

Born and raised in and around Toronto, Dan Lett came to Winnipeg in 1986, less than a year out of journalism school with a lifelong dream to be a newspaper reporter.

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History

Updated on Wednesday, September 18, 2019 7:51 PM CDT: Fixes typo

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