Trudeau Liberals losing support in Winnipeg, poll shows

OTTAWA — The federal Liberals are seeing their support slip in Winnipeg, while the NDP is finding momentum, a new poll has found.

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This article was published 02/04/2019 (2096 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

OTTAWA — The federal Liberals are seeing their support slip in Winnipeg, while the NDP is finding momentum, a new poll has found.

“I think this is a function of Winnipeggers especially not being quite sure where to park their support now,” said Mary Agnes Welch, a principal at Probe Research.

The firm polled 1,000 Manitobans last month and found that the Liberals have dropped to 31 per cent support, three per cent down from December, and a steady decrease from the party’s 45 per cent support in the 2015 election.

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Across Winnipeg, one-fifth of respondents would vote for the NDP if a federal vote had happened last month, up four points from December. In the city’s core, the Liberals had a single percentage point lead over the NDP.

The Tories are holding a lead in Manitoba at 42 per cent, compared with 35 per cent in the 2015 vote.

Welch says it appears that Winnipeg, like most of Canada, has lost enthusiasm for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

“If there are Liberal voters in Winnipeg who are upset and disillusioned — and there are many of those — I think their natural resting spot is probably more likely with the NDP than it is with the Tories right now.”

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The Liberals maintain their highest support in the southern half of the city, at 47 per cent. Otherwise, the southern area west of the Red River has more divided support, while on the east side, the Tories have 37 per cent support.

MIKAELA MACKENZIE / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS FILES
MP Terry Duguid
MIKAELA MACKENZIE / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS FILES MP Terry Duguid

“There have been concerns raised about this division in our party, which we’ve now moved on from,” Winnipeg South MP Terry Duguid admitted.

“Polls are a snapshot in time; things are very volatile out there. And our job is to get back to governing for Canadians, implementing our priorities and talking about our budget.”

The northeast puts the Tories in the lead at 36 per cent, compared with the Liberals at 33 per cent and the NDP at 20 per cent.

Winnipeg North MP Kevin Lamoureux said his Liberal party’s numbers on poverty and jobs are more likely to resonate with voters.

“I think those are the measures people will be looking at,” he said. “As long as we don’t take it for granted and work hard and stay focused on Canadians, I suspect we’ll be OK on October 21."

“As long as we don’t take it for granted and work hard and stay focused on Canadians, I suspect we’ll be OK on October 21.”–Winnipeg North MP Kevin Lamoureux

Yet Welch says the city is a far cry from the lead-up to the 2015 federal election, when she recalled seeing a “10-block-long line up outside the St. James Civic Centre to see Justin Trudeau.”

“Pretty clearly now, that feeling has evaporated. Many of those folks who were in line are now wondering where to fall in this upcoming vote.”

JOHN WOODS / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS
Leah Gazan receives a standing ovation after she speaks at the federal NDP Winnipeg candidate nomination meeting.
JOHN WOODS / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS Leah Gazan receives a standing ovation after she speaks at the federal NDP Winnipeg candidate nomination meeting.

Elmwood-Transcona MP Daniel Blaikie, who holds the NDP’s sole Winnipeg seat, argued his party’s policies on pharmacare, housing and climate change are attracting voters.

He noted the large turnout for last Sunday’s downtown nomination race, which saw grassroots activist Leah Gazan best former provincial Cabinet minister Andrew Swan.

“There’s definitely wind in our sails in Winnipeg Centre, and it’s great to see that that’s true of Winnipeg in general,” he said.

Yet Welch predicted “a pretty tough fight in the next election” for Blaikie, with the city’s northeast splitting its support for both the Liberals and Tories at 34 per cent.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh last visited Winnipeg in August 2017, two months before he took over the federal party, and Welch says he seems largely unknown among locals.

“It’s more disillusionment with the Liberals, rather than necessarily falling in love with the NDP,” she said.

“It’s more disillusionment with the Liberals, rather than necessarily falling in love with the NDP.”–Mary Agnes Welch

Welch added that she was surprised to see the Tories and Liberals almost tied in their support among women across the province, a demographic Trudeau has previously relied on.

Conservative MP Candice Bergen said the SNC-Lavalin scandal is probably playing a role.

“I’ve been in this long enough that you don’t make decisions based on polls. But I can tell you people are very upset with what the prime minister’s doing,” she said.

dylan.robertson@freepress.mb.ca

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