Sun shining on Tories’ popularity heading into summer: poll By: Larry Kusch Posted: 7:00 PM CDT Tuesday, Jun. 26, 2018

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Brian Pallister’s Progressive Conservatives are enjoying a comfortable lead in voter popularity as they hit the midpoint in their mandate.

According to a Probe Research poll for the Winnipeg Free Press, the PCs have the support of 42 per cent of decided voters compared with 30 per cent for the NDP, 16 per cent for the Liberals and 11 per cent for the Greens.

The results are little changed from spring, when the Tories had the support of 44 per cent of those surveyed, compared with 28 per cent for the New Democrats and 19 per cent for the Liberals. Green support was eight per cent.

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PC voting strength remains firm despite the government’s controversial health-care reforms and its ongoing belt-tightening efforts.

"They can have the summer off and know that they remain popular, and they’ll go into the fall being popular, I would assume," said Probe president Scott MacKay.

Christopher Adams, a political scientist at St. Paul’s College at the University of Manitoba, said the poll results are a good sign for the Tories.

"I think this is a good-news poll for a government that’s in-between elections and a government that’s had to make some difficult choices," he said.

The poll is not great news, however, for the Manitoba Liberals, who have seen their support slide for two consecutive quarters after climbing to 25 per cent in December. They now sit at 16 per cent.

There’s a lot at stake for the Liberals in the byelection called for St. Boniface on July 17. Their new leader, Dougald Lamont, is vying for a seat in the legislature in the constituency formerly represented by former NDP premier Greg Selinger.

While declining provincial numbers hardly mean Liberal fortunes are doomed in St. Boniface, they’re not encouraging either, MacKay said.

"They (the Liberals) would love to have seen this number tick up just to get some morale for this byelection," he said.

The Progressive Conservatives remain the party of choice for men in Manitoba — at 50 per cent of decided male voters compared with 25 per cent for the NDP and 14 per cent for the Liberals. Among women, the NDP (35 per cent) and the PCs (34 per cent) are in a virtual tie for support, with the Liberals trailing at 17 per cent.

In Winnipeg, the NDP holds a slight edge over the PCs (34 per cent versus 32 per cent) in overall support, with the Liberals in third place at 21 per cent and the Greens bringing up the rear with 12 per cent.

The Tories blow away the competition when it comes to political support from Manitobans living outside of Winnipeg. Outside the capital, 58 per cent of decided voters support the PCs, compared with 25 per cent for the NDP and just seven per cent for the Liberals.

larry.kusch@freepress.mb.ca

Larry Kusch
Legislature reporter

Larry Kusch didn’t know what he wanted to do with his life until he attended a high school newspaper editor’s workshop in Regina in the summer of 1969 and listened to a university student speak glowingly about the journalism program at Carleton University in Ottawa.

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