It’s going to cost more to eat less Annual food price report predicts average family of four will pay an additional $1,065 next year By: Gabrielle Piché Posted: 7:00 PM CST Monday, Dec. 5, 2022

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 04/12/2022 (751 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Prepare to pay even more for groceries next year.

Food prices could rise another five to seven per cent in 2023, according to the latest Canada’s Food Price Report.

The average family of four could pay $1,065 more on food annually, to a total $16,288, the report states.

“I wish the crystal ball was saying things would go back to normal and we would see prices drop, but I don’t see fuel prices dropping, I don’t see the war in Ukraine stopping in the first six months next year,” said Stuart Smyth, one of the report’s leads.

Smyth, an agriculture and resource economics professor at the University of Saskatchewan, has worked with scholars across Canada on the report for four months.

“If the war stopped and fuel prices came down, that would have a tremendous impact on helping to lower (food) costs,” Smyth said.

Food Price Report 2022

Manitoba will likely align with national trends, he said. So, the average two-person household might spend $7,711, according to the report.

Groceries will be more expensive in northern Manitoba communities, Smyth noted.

“I think it’s outrageous,” Shannon Howard, a Walmart grocery shopper, said of the news Monday.

She was scanning ground beef, looking at prices. She’s cut back on meat purchases this year.

In 2023, meat costs are set to increase between five to seven per cent, alongside bakery products and dairy, the report predicts.

“(This) just seems hard to believe in this time that we’re living in, and all the farming,” Howard said. ”There’s so much food in the stores — I just can’t believe it’s that much (of an increase).”

The Canadian dollar plays a large role, according to Smyth. Manitoba imports much of its produce from the United States. On Monday, $1 CAD equalled 74 cents USD.

The loonie was worth more than 80 cents USD earlier this year.

“As the value of the Canadian dollar falls, that pushes up the price here,” Smyth said.

“The first part of the year will be challenging… but the second part, the economic slowdown, it will be more peaceful.”–Sylvain Charlebois

Transportation costs, a shortage of containers — making shipping more expensive — and a lack of truck drivers contributes, he said.

Geopolitics and climate change, which affects crops, add to the expectations of continued inflation, said Sylvain Charlebois, project lead of the report.

“I think 2023 will be a tale of two stories,” Charlebois said. “The first part of the year will be challenging… but the second part, the economic slowdown, it will be more peaceful.”

Models show supply chain disruptions easing in 2023’s second quarter, Smyth said.

However, anything could happen, he noted. The Canada’s Food Price Report for 2022 projected food inflation levels between five and seven per cent. In actuality, for Manitoba, it averaged at 10.7 per cent.

“The war in Ukraine, for example, had a huge impact,” Smyth said. “It shows just how difficult it is to model changes in something like food prices.”

Continued price increases means continued budgeting for groceries, even if a pay raise comes, said Myrtle Luzanta.

He was shopping in Walmart Monday; his wife spotted more deals there than at Superstore. She scours flyers and cost compares, then Luzanta goes shopping.

“It’s not like we’re struggling, but you still have to look for the price that is on the lower side,” he said. “There’s nothing we can do. We just have to use our budget wisely.”

Vegetable prices could jump six to eight per cent next year, according to the report. Fruit might increase up to five per cent, and restaurant bills up to six per cent.

“It’s really sad,” said Maria Sousa, who was grabbing rice for a friend Monday. “Especially for low-income families. This sucks.”

Harvest Manitoba is bracing for more food bank users as the cost of food rises, according to CEO Vince Barletta.

“I think that… for many Manitobans, the food security situation is a crisis right now,” he said.

Food bank use in Manitoba has doubled since 2019; Harvest now feeds 90,000 people monthly.

“I think that… for many Manitobans, the food security situation is a crisis right now.”–Vince Barletta

“Harvest will be as generous as Manitobans allow us to be,” Barletta said, adding locals have been supportive with their food, time and money.

There was an uptick in Manitobans accessing Grant Thornton’s services this fall, according to Nathan Bell, a licensed insolvency trustee with the company. He attributes the busyness to a heightened cost of living.

“People put gas in their car on a regular basis and they feel it immediately,” Bell noted. “Life is getting more expensive.”

Saving money largely comes down to planning, Bell said.

“The most common thing people need is a weekly meal plan,” he said, adding it keeps shoppers from spending on unnecessary items.

Choosing locally grown products and basing your menu on what’s in season helps, Bell noted. Much of Manitoba grocers’ produce is imported, meaning fuel and shipping costs are attached.

Finally, price matching and being mindful of flyers helps, Bell said.

“It could save you having to drive across town to different places,” he added.

Dalhousie University, the University of British Columbia, the University of Guelph and the University of Saskatchewan led the report, which was released Monday.

The post-secondaries gather relevant recent data and have data going back 40 years, Smyth said. Modelling and graphing for the report happened from August through September, he added.

Last year’s report predicted food prices would increase five to seven per cent in 2022 — the biggest jump ever predicted by the annual food price report.

Food costs actually far exceeded that forecast. Grocery prices were up 11 per cent in October compared with a year before while overall food costs were up 10.1 per cent, according to Statistics Canada.

“We were called alarmists,” Charlebois said of the prediction that food prices could rise seven per cent in 2022. Critics called the report an “exaggeration,” he said.

“You’re always one crisis away from throwing everything out the window,” Charlebois said. “We didn’t predict the war in Ukraine, and that really affected markets.”

— With files from Canadian Press

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com