Some Russians denounce invasion of Ukraine and feel ‘shame and guilt’ — but it’s not expected to matter

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 24/02/2022 (1035 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A man holding signs outside of a bus window with the words “War Stop.” A woman being led away by police while clasping balloons in the colours of the Ukrainian flag. Police wrestling a protester to the ground as bystanders watch cautiously.

These were the scenes circulating in photos and videos posted to social media Thursday as thousands of Russians took to the streets in opposition to the invasion of Ukraine, prompting some media pundits to ponder if Russian President Vladimir Putin had overestimated domestic support for a military operation.

For people like Mariya H., an ethnic Russian who grew up in Ukraine, there was a sense of being torn between two lands as she watched news of the invasion in Ukraine. (She asked to not use her last name because she’s worried it could be connected to family in Russia.)

As media on the ground and human-rights organizations report that over 1,800 Russians have been arrested in all the country’s major cities — sometimes for doing nothing more than holding an anti-war sign in public for mere seconds — Mariya shares an idea of what may be driving Russians to risk arrest to make their point.

She said she has friends in Russia who are posting that they are ashamed of their government’s actions.

“They feel shame and they feel guilt for what the Russian government is doing to Ukraine right now,” Mariya said. “And I believe they are sincere.”

Mariya feels a strong connection to both countries — her mother still visits Russia every year.

“I always identified myself as Ukrainian, but a Russian-speaking Ukrainian,” Mariya said from her home in Toronto.

“And it was possible to remain in between, to be Ukrainian, but Russian speaking. And now I don’t know how to actually identify myself.”

She said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine felt like a “big betrayal” and a “huge lie.”

Mariya grew up in Odessa, on Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, said she considered Russia her “second homeland” and knows many others who feel similarly.

“There are millions of families like mine there. That’s why it’s such a huge suffering and pain for all of us. And I’m sure in Russia it’s like that as well.”

Hanna Notte, senior research associate at the Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, left Russia, where she was attending a conference, one day before the invasion commenced. She said there was a sense of surprise expressed, among Russian analysts and academics she had talked with, that talk of a military operation had escalated to a full-scale invasion.

“I feel that the expectation was very much that this is all part of a gradual ratcheting up the pressure, part of a coercive bargaining, coercive diplomacy kind of game … they were not expecting Putin to actually cross the Rubicon,” Notte said.

Prominent Russians who have spoken out against the war have been punished by the state — Elena Chernenko, a senior correspondent for the Kommersant newspaper, wrote an open letter signed by more than 200 journalists condemning the invasion. In response, she was booted from the Foreign Ministry pool of journalists for “unprofessionalism.”

Notte said, “Those who are going on the streets protesting against the war, and coming out on social media against the war, are doing so at great risk, personally and professionally. So I would assume not everyone is willing to incur that kind of cost.”

People with more prominent voices in traditional and social media are likelier at greater risk of facing repercussions, Notte said, than the average citizen.

The Guardian reported that Ivan Urgant, host of a popular talk show on a state-run channel, posted a black square on Instagram with the Russian words “Fear and pain. No to war,” and that his show has not appeared on air since.

In Moscow, theatre director Elena Kovalskaya resigned from the state-run Meyerhold Centre theatre in protest after she referred to Putin as a “killer.”

Notte said while there have been organized protests, she doesn’t believe they pose a threat to Putin domestically. They may be making their points in full knowledge that they won’t be heeded.

“I wouldn’t overestimate those protests. I mean, I haven’t sort of looked at the latest numbers now, but from my understanding, in terms of the scale, they are not massive,” Notte said.

The invasion could even create a sense of solidarity and patriotism among some Russians, especially as the rest of the world imposes further sanctions on Russia, she added.

“I expect neither significant public support for this war, nor do I expect significant public resistance … the question of whether this state of affairs will be sustainable will largely depend on how long this military campaign will last for and how many (Russian) losses will occur.”

Read more on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

The Star’s latest coverage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Why is Russia invading Ukraine? Everything you need to know

What are Canada’s sanctions against Russia and how do they stack up to other countries’?

What is SWIFT and why haven’t countries expelled Russia from it yet?

Does China support the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

What role did Ukraine’s desire to join NATO play in Putin’s decision to invade the country?

A list of Russian allies during the Ukraine invasion and the reasons they support the aggression

Omar Mosleh is an Edmonton-based reporter for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @OmarMosleh