What we learned from Russia-U.S. talks over Ukraine — as the world watches on

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 09/01/2022 (1082 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

MOSCOW—The first of three diplomatic faceoffs this week aimed at neutralizing the threat of war between Russia and Ukraine showed just how far Moscow and the West are from seeing eye to eye.

Round one of the whirlwind European tour took place Monday in Geneva. It was an eight-hour meeting described in the preamble of comments by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman as “frank” and by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as “serious.”

Only when the veteran negotiators rehashed the details of their talks for reporters was it revealed how little progress Washington has made trying to resolve the standoff between Moscow and Kyiv, a dispute that the NATO military alliance — including a thousand deployed Canadian troops — has been left to police.

Ryabkov could have couched his words in official-speak, but opted instead for the starkest possible terms: “We do not trust the other side.”

For Sherman, who had a gentler way of expressing it, the feeling was mutual.

“I generally don’t approach these kinds of situations on the basis of trust,” she said. “I think what matters is: What are the results?”

Eight years after Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine — years in which Russian forces have advocated for and allegedly supported armed separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine — there has been little movement. It has been nearly two months since the first reports emerged of a suspected Russian invasion force that had massed along the country’s border with Ukraine.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken put the number at nearly 100,000 troops and said there are “plans to mobilize twice that number on a very short order.”

Russia says its troops are only deployed on a training mission.

“There are no intentions to attack Ukraine,” Ryabkov told reporters Monday. “None.”

If there are no such plans, the Americans counter, then Russia should make a good-faith gesture by sending the troops back to their barracks.

“We made it very clear that it’s very hard to have constructive, productive and successful diplomacy without de-escalation, because the escalation obviously increases tensions and doesn’t create the best environment for real negotiations,” Sherman said.

Part of the Monday’s Geneva meeting was given over to a proposal, drafted by the Russians, that would see the 30-member NATO alliance agree to refrain from creeping further eastward and actualizing the nightmare scenario of Russian President Vladimir Putin: a western military presence viewed as hostile standing at attention on Russia’s border.

Such a prospect has hung like a sword of Damocles over Russia’s head since at least 2008, when NATO leaders agreed to the inclusion of a single, controversial sentence in its final communique at a summit in Bucharest. Pertaining to Ukraine and Georgia, two former Soviet states and current Russian neighbours who have long sought the West’s protection from Russia, it read: “We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO.”

Twelve years later, Ukraine and Georgia have not ascended to the ranks of membership, but the mere possibility is still potent enough to fuel the current dispute.

“For us, it’s absolutely mandatory to make sure that Ukraine never — never, ever — becomes a member of NATO,” Ryabkov said, adding that Moscow insists on NATO signing a written agreement.

“We are fed up with loose talk, half promises, misinterpretation of what happened at different forums of negotiations behind closed doors. … We need ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding guarantees.”

Expect to hear more of those same complaints when this week’s diplomatic roadshow arrives in Brussels for a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council on Wednesday — a fragile forum that has not been convened since July 2019 due to the soured relations between the two sides.

But don’t expect Russia’s proposal to gain any traction.

NATO has what it calls an “open-door” membership policy, meaning that any nation can seek and achieve membership.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday at a meeting with Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna that, despite the 12-year lag, the alliance is committed to helping Ukraine achieve eventual membership by implementing the necessary reforms that will allow it to meet NATO standards.

“It is for Ukraine and the 30 NATO allies to decide when Ukraine is ready for membership,” Stoltenberg said.

“No one else has any right to say anything about that.”

If diplomacy ends and the deployment of Russian troops into Ukraine begins, Washington says it will lead western nations in bringing crippling economic sanctions against Russia.

This threat of economic penalties will be lurking behind responses to Russia’s every diplomatic manoeuvre, including those that are sure to emerge Thursday at a meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), where Russia and Ukraine have equal standing as participating members.

Ryabkov said threats of sanctions — not the presence of Russian soldiers in striking distance of Ukraine — is the true aggression in this dispute.

“That’s an attempt at blackmail. … That’s an attempt to intimidate,” he said. “I know that other than sanctions or blackmailing they don’t have a lot of tools in the western diplomatic arsenal. They’re losing this skill of finding an agreement, but that’s OK. We will do our best trying to restore it and we will try to teach them this skill.”