Stable incomes, not more weapons, provide security

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 06/04/2022 (995 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The conflict in Ukraine threatens to set off a global arms race that saps economies including Canada’s of productive capital.

Almost invariably citing Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has lasted just seven weeks, many of the world’s biggest economies are rushing to boost their defence spending.

In Thursday’s federal budget, Canada will commit to bigger defence expenditures.

Canada is already on track to increase defence spending by about 73 per cent in the decade ending 2026, to $32.7 billion. In the fiscal year just ended, Canada spent an estimated $25.7 billion on defence.

But that carefully calculated escalation in defence budgets predates the Ukraine war. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, have repeatedly described the Ukraine conflict as a new existential threat to the rules-based international order.

And that might have been so, if the West had not struck back, swiftly and powerfully, against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s atrocity-laden belligerence in Ukraine.

It is the playbook for economic warfare that the West rapidly conceived, and not Western military force, that has quickly diminished Russia’s power, with lasting implications for Russia’s future ability to inflict injury on others.

That same playbook, with its 5,500 punishing trade and financial sanctions, might prove even more effective against China, the other boogeyman driving up Western defence budgets.

Unlike Russia, which has a comparatively modest $150 billion (U.S.) trade relationship with the West, China is an export-driven economy whose Western trade amounted to $3.6 trillion (U.S.) in 2021.

Cutting China off from its two major markets, North America and Europe, would send the Chinese economy into a tailspin without a shot being fired.

And yet, the lesson Western leaders are drawing from Ukraine is that we must bulk up our conventional military capabilities. That risks an arms race with Russia and China.

In the midst of the Ukrainian conflict, Germany has committed a massive $100 billion (U.S.) to upgrading its military.

And like Canada, Germany has chosen during the current geopolitical uncertainty to begin negotiating the purchase of the U.S.-made F-35 fighter jet. The F-35 is one of the costliest warplanes ever developed and is plagued with technical deficiencies.

Emmanuel Macron, president of France, has made a promise to increase defence spending central to his current campaign for re-election.

Poland, which is pleading for Western assistance to cope with a flood of Ukrainian refugees, just signed a $4.75-billion (U.S.) deal to buy 250 Abrams tanks from the U.S.

And in the annual U.S. budget that President Joe Biden recently submitted to Capitol Hill, defence outlays would soar to a record $813 billion (U.S.) in 2023.

China responded last month to uncertainty over Ukraine and the spike in Western defence spending with a 7.1 per cent hike in its own defence budget, despite a weakening in China’s GDP growth. It is the biggest increase since 2019.

Often described as a piker in defence spending, Canada is actually the sixth-largest spender on defence among NATO’s 30 member states.

That said, the Canadian Armed Forces need new equipment and higher pay for personnel to address a long-time inability to meet recruitment goals.

Meanwhile, though, Canada has some $15 billion in funds allocated to defence that hasn’t been spent because of a chronically dysfunctional procurement system.

What Ukraine should teach us, or remind us of, is the limitations of conventional military forces.

France and then the U.S. learned that lesson in their failed Southeast Asian conflicts from the 1950s to the 1970s.

So did the Soviet Union, and later a coalition of 41 countries, including Canada, in failing to rout the Taliban from Afghanistan.

And it should be a sobering fact that the Western troops now amassed in Eastern Europe, including Canadian armed forces, are powerless to sweep the Russian invaders out of Ukraine. That might trigger a nuclear holocaust.

A tripling in Canadian military prowess would not change that reality.

Instead, Ukraine’s armed forces and civilian resistance are successfully defending their country with surplus weapons supplied by the West. And with cheap but effective Turkish drones and locally mass-produced Molotov cocktails.

A hike in Canadian defence spending should be a tough sell.

Canadian governments have about $600 billion in pandemic expenses to pay off. Ontario alone needs an estimated 1.5 million new homes by decade’s end. The bill for Indigenous services and reconciliation is estimated at $45 billion.

The military hawks now promoting bigger defence budgets warn of new “security realities” exposed by the Ukraine war. A war that Russia, incidentally, appears to be losing, despite committing about 150,000 troops to it.

Of course, opinions differ on the meaning of security.

For some the term refers to an adequate supply of missiles.

For others it means a stable income and decent shelter, and better preparedness for the severe weather events caused by climate crisis.

An arms race is no answer for those existential threats.

David Olive is a Toronto-based business columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @TheGrtRecession