Will Khan face the wrath of voters?

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 21/03/2022 (1011 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

“Obby, what were you thinking?”

That’s the question Obby Khan’s friends and family must be asking him as he awaits the results of today’s byelection in the Fort Whyte riding.

It’s a question he’s probably asking himself.

Indeed, why would a successful entrepreneur — a former Blue Bombers football star who is widely admired in Winnipeg — jeopardize all that goodwill by entering the political ring?

Even more pointedly, why would he take on the burden of running as a Progressive Conservative candidate at a time when the province’s PC government is deeply unpopular with Manitobans generally, and Winnipeggers in particular?

Why would he assume the task of defending the government’s handling of the pandemic, its health-care restructuring plan, and its bungled effort to reform the province’s child education system?

Why would he put himself in a position of having to defend last week’s stupid remarks by the premier?

He’s had nothing to do with any of that. He’s completely blameless, yet he has voluntarily made himself a focus of the public’s anger.

Why would a guy as smart and successful as Obby Khan do that to himself?

Well, “woulda, should, coulda.” As in: if he “woulda” given the question of whether it’s a smart idea to run as a PC candidate right now and expose himself to all that hostility, as he “shoulda,” he “coulda” decided life’s not so bad in the private sector.

He might have come to that decision if he had read the results of a Probe Research poll conducted this past January. It found 25 per cent of respondents would “stop patronizing a particular business” if the owner decided to run for a party they did not support.

Given that roughly 70 per cent of Winnipeggers are currently opposed to the PC Party, Khan’s decision to run as the Tory candidate means he is risking a significant drop in his private businesses’ revenues — a drop that can easily transform a profitable company into a money-loser.

Having said all of that, and despite the unpopularity of the Stefanson government, Khan still has a good chance of winning today’s byelection.

Since the riding was created in 1999, Fort Whyte has consistently been one of the safest Tory seats in the province and the party’s most secure seat inside the Perimeter. Indeed, the PC candidate has never received fewer than 51 per cent of the votes cast in any election or byelection since 1999.

Most recently, Brian Pallister rolled to victory in Fort Whyte in the 2019 election with more than 57 per cent of the votes. The NDP and Liberal candidate each received just less than 18 per cent.

In other words, Khan has entered this byelection with a massive home-field advantage and a 23-year Tory winning streak. It would take a seismic shift in voter preference for him to lose.

How realistic is that possibility? There are no public poll results, but there has been a growing perception on social media, and even in conventional media to some extent, that Khan is in a close fight with Liberal candidate Willard Reaves and New Democrat Trudy Schroeder.

In order for Khan to lose, however, three things need to happen. First, many traditional Tory voters in the riding would have to either switch to Reaves or Schroeder, or stay home and not vote at all. Given the low popularity of the current PC government, voter enthusiasm could be a problem for the Khan campaign.

Second, Reaves and Schroeder must massively improve turnout among non-Tory voters. Forty per cent of eligible Fort Whyte voters did not vote in the 2019 election. The opportunity to punish the current government could motivate them to vote, but byelections typically feature lower turnout, not higher.

Third, voters would have to vote strategically and avoid vote-splitting between Reaves and Schroeder. A lot of NDP and/or Liberal voters must be willing to switch to the other side in order to prevent a Khan win.

As unlikely as that sounds, the reality is that even if Khan emerges with the most votes tonight, all he will have won is a ringside seat to a tough general election campaign and likely landslide defeat 19 months from now.

Obby, what were you thinking?

deverynrossletters@gmail.com Twitter: @deverynross