War with Iran: Trump, Trudeau and trouble

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 10/01/2020 (1813 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

FORMER CIA director Leon Panetta, not known for making outlandish statements, is deeply worried about recent developments in the Middle East. He believes the Trump administration is the closest the U.S. has been to war with Iran in 40 years (or since the Iranian revolution of 1979). Maybe.

To no one’s surprise, U.S. President Donald Trump has only escalated matters by unleashing a Twitter firestorm against Iran. It wasn’t enough to snuff out Maj.-Gen. Qassem Soleimani, arguably the No. 2 leader in the Iranian hierarchy, with a lethal drone strike from a U.S. Reaper. Now, he is tweeting about “targeting 52 Iranian sites…some of a very high level & importance to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself.”

He then went on to stir the pot menacingly: “WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats!”

Hossein Dehghan, a top military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was quick to say Tehran is not seeking outright war with the U.S. “It was America that started the war. Therefore, they should accept appropriate reactions to their actions,” he said pointedly.

He followed that up by noting ominously: “The only thing that can end this period of war is for the Americans to receive a blow that is equal to the blow they have inflicted. Afterward, they should not seek a new cycle.”

Of course, one of the critical questions here is what will the U.S. and Trump do in response to Iran’s recent military retaliation. That, more than anything else, will be a key factor in whether a protracted U.S.-Iran war could ensue.

At the moment, Trump has been measured in his remarks about Wednesday’s Iranian missile attacks in Iraq. But for how long?

Significantly, one of the central reasons why neither the Bush nor the Obama administrations attempted to assassinate Soleimani was because they feared the fallout and Iran’s anticipated retaliation for such a brazen act. They knew Tehran would have to respond forcefully and that it had a multitude of ways in which it could inflict punishment on America and Americans — or have its proxies in many parts of the world do so.

Michigan Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a former CIA analyst and Middle East expert, understood the situation well during the Bush and Obama years. She remarked recently that “What always kept both Democratic and Republican presidents from targeting Soleimani himself was the simple question: was the strike worth the likely retaliation, and the potential to pull us into a protracted conflict?” As far as she was concerned, “the two administrations I worked for both determined that the ultimate ends didn’t justify the means.”

So where does this leave the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau? And what options does it have at its disposal? Not very good ones, I’m afraid.

In a minority government situation, the Trudeau Liberals need to be mindful of not acting without the support of opposition parties and the consent of Parliament. The potential domestic politics of this is, to state the obvious, unquestionably treacherous for the federal Liberals.

It needs to be careful about not being perceived as Trump’s lackey if it opts to back any additional U.S. military actions. And if the Liberals, heaven forbid, do get bogged down in a military conflict with Iran, it could ultimately topple their government.

Canada does have some 800-plus soldiers already in Iraq as part of a Canadian-led NATO (and U.S.) training mission. But NATO has now decided, in light of the precarious geostrategic situation on the ground, to suspend its commitment. Will Ottawa follow suit or leave some of its forces in theatre?

Add to this the fact that the USMCA trade pact among the “three amigos,” which Canada desperately wants to put to bed, has not been ratified yet. Could Trump use the deal to pressure Canada into supporting any future U.S. military initiatives in the region? On the other hand, can we afford to rebuke the U.S. president?

Far be it for me to advise the Canadian government on what to do here, but I can’t see any up side to Canada getting into a shooting war with the Iranians. It would be like the Afghanistan conflict on steroids.

Moreover, the political optics of the Trudeau Liberals standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Trump against Iran would be absolutely deadly. There’s just no way that his government could survive such an act of subservience. Ottawa, therefore, would be wise to keep its distance.

Peter McKenna is professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island in Charlottetown.