Pallister’s Phase 4 rollback: Just what the doctor ordered?

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 23/07/2020 (1574 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

In the slow process of easing Manitoba out of its pandemic restrictions, the Phase 4 proposal unveiled by Premier Brian Pallister earlier this week was most definitely an outlier.

The first three phases were within the confines of what was, at the time, accepted public health guidelines. Even as restrictions were lifted, Manitoba remained one of the least-affected jurisdictions in North America, proof that we were on the right track.

Phase 4, on the other hand, was not only out of step with previous phases, it was at odds with COVID-19 science and current epidemiological conditions.

The Phase 4 draft plan would have allowed travel without quarantine to and from eastern provinces, resumption of counter service in bars, and significant increases in the numbers of people allowed to gather indoors in places of worship, theatres and casinos.

Phase 4 seemed blissfully ignorant that in early July, more than 230 scientists publicly urged the World Health Organization to revise its thinking on COVID-19 because of growing evidence that the virus lingers in the air indoors. That weakens the case significantly for increasing indoor gatherings, and puts a new emphasis on mandatory mask use.

Phase 4 also seemed to ignore what was happening back here in Manitoba, where the province is suddenly struggling to keep up with demand for COVID-19 tests. The rush to get tested is no doubt connected to the fact that, after a relatively quiet May and June, new confirmed infections are on the rise.

All these developments made for an unusual backdrop for Pallister’s efforts to take one of the least restricted jurisdictions on the continent and open things up even more.

The province claimed that after an unprecedented number of responses to an online survey, the Phase 4 plans were pared way back. A 14-day quarantine is now still required for those returning from the east. Theatres, churches and casinos will only be allowed 30 per cent capacity. Plans to increase indoor the size of gatherings and counter service have been put on hold.

The revised Phase 4 plan matches the logic and reason of the first three phases. That only leaves two significant questions: who came up with the ambitious draft plan in the first place, and who or what convinced the government to backtrack?

When it comes to pandemic policy, it has always been very difficult to figure out who is driving the bus here in Manitoba.

Pallister and key ministers are certainly involved. And Dr. Brent Roussin, the chief public officer of health, is obviously a key figure along with the much-touted inter-departmental team of experts who advise the premier.

But when you try to find out who was chiefly responsible for Phase 4, things get pretty muddy.

At the July 23 news conference where the revised Phase 4 plan was unveiled, Roussin was asked about the proposal to eliminate the 14-day quarantine on travellers. Roussin said that plan was devised a few weeks ago when the epidemiology here and across Canada “supported the loosening of those restrictions.” However, he also acknowledged that by the time the premier made his draft Phase 4 public, there was a clear “increase in incidence” of COVID-19 cases that required Manitoba to “leave those restrictions on for now.”

In other words, Roussin pretty much confirmed that when Pallister unveiled the draft plan on July 21, it was already out of date. That clearly did not deter him.

Government sources say Pallister and his staff were still debating the exact details of Phase 4 on the morning he unveiled them, and that he wanted to go further than what was eventually included in the draft plan. That strongly suggests Pallister was ignoring the epidemiological evidence that Roussin cited, and relying more on his political instincts.

The awful truth about COVID-19 — as verified by overly ambitious jurisdictions around the world — is that easing social and economic restrictions too fast leads to a surge in new cases. The virus is present everywhere, including Manitoba. All that it needs to explode is a failure to sustain economic and social restrictions.

That means here in Manitoba, where we have been largely spared the horrors of COVID-19 hot spots, we cannot rely on past luck to ensure future success. And we certainly cannot allow government policy to be set by online opinion surveys.

The mere suggestion that an unscientific, online survey posted on the province’s website was enough to convince everyone to roll back the Phase 4 plans is too silly to merit serious consideration.

Even though Pallister’s office has refused to release the actual survey results, there is every reason to believe they were mostly critical of Pallister’s Phase 4 proposals. It is much harder to believe that the survey alone could have convinced Pallister to stand down.

It is more likely that the survey results were used as leverage by senior political staff or senior cabinet ministers to talk Pallister down from his ambitious Phase 4 cliff. If that’s so, it marks an important watershed moment in the history of the Tory government.

It would mark one of the first times Pallister listened to someone other than himself on a matter of critical importance. That’s either progress, or the beginning of the end of his suffocating control of this government.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca