Why is Russia invading Ukraine? Everything you need to know

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This article was published 23/02/2022 (939 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Canadians woke Thursday morning to the news that, after a weeks-long military buildup at the border, Russian troops had invaded Ukraine.

For weeks, tensions — already high after the 2014 Crimean occupation by Russia — have grown in Ukraine as Russian forces rattled their sabres.

Diplomacy and economic sanctions from the West failed to defuse the situation. Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded assurances that Ukraine would not join NATO, though there seemed to be little indication that that was imminent.

On Thursday, missiles began raining down on Ukrainian cities and the Russian military poured into the country by land, sea and air from the north, east and south. Sirens blared across Kyiv, the capital, and the streets were clogged with traffic as residents tried to flee the city.

For those that haven’t been following closely up to now, here’s a primer on the situation in Ukraine.

Why is Russia invading Ukraine?

“Russia says that it just wants to prevent Ukraine from entering NATO. But given that there is no immediate prospect of (Ukraine) entering NATO, that is not the real reason,” said Matthew Light, associate professor of European, Russian and Eurasian studies at the University of Toronto.

“The real reason is that Russia wants to dominate Ukraine and turn it into a kind of satellite state or protectorate like the Eastern European countries were doing (under) the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

“Ukraine is a transitional democracy that has also begun developing its commercial ties with the European Union and is having some success restructuring its economy without Russian involvement, and Russia’s been very clear since 2014 that it will not tolerate any kind of independent — not only foreign policy, but even independent trade policy for Ukraine.”

In essence, said Light, Russia is afraid of Ukraine cutting its apron strings.

“Russia wants to integrate all post-Soviet countries into not only its security organizations for the region, but also its economic organizations for the region. And a Ukraine that is integrated with the EU and that has limitations on dirty Russian money — it’s not a possible trading partner for Russia or is of limited value for Russia.

“Even before this started, Russia had occupied portions of three post-Soviet countries, including Ukraine, but also Georgia and Moldova. I think the message is clear: Russia wishes to be surrounded by satellite states. And in particular it objects to its neighbours becoming democracies.

“(Putin) has made clear and his regime have made clear that the idea that one of their neighbours could present a model of democratic political development for the Russian people is unacceptable to them.

“Things are evolving very quickly, but it’s starting to look like what Putin is aiming for is to overthrow the government of Ukraine and replace it with a government that’s more to his liking, and to destroy the Ukrainian military.

“It’s also possible that Putin would be satisfied with essentially bringing Ukraine to complete obedience and forcing it to accept a kind of armistice in which it accepted the kind of subordinate or satellite role that Russia wants for it, without actually technically ousting a president and the government.”

Why is the invasion happening now?

“The Ukrainian military has been performing better in recent years and has also begun to receive equipment that it was using effectively against Russian forces, notably Turkish Bayraktar drones.

“One interpretation is that not only does Putin see Ukraine sort of firmly removed from his orbit, but also militarily recovering and able to defend itself more successfully and he wants to seize the opportunity to attack before they’re fully able to resist.”

Also, said Light, when current Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to power in 2019, it may have seemed to Putin that he had a softer message about the Crimean conflict and would represent a state more sympathetic to Russia.

“But there are some indications that Putin has concluded that Zelenskyy is not actually going to give him what he wants. Zelenskyy recently shut down a number of pro-Russian media in Ukraine and also began prosecuting a leading pro-Russian politician.

“And that seems to have infuriated Putin and led him to conclude that nobody in Ukraine was going to give him what he wanted. So … he’s come to the conclusion that Zelenskyy is not any more compliant than previous Ukrainian leaders have been.”

Who has the bigger army?

Latest reports from the U.S. indicated 190,000 Russian troops were at the border of Ukraine and the larger country can also draw on far more from its roughly 850,000 active military personnel. Ukraine can call upon its army of 250,000, plus another 300,000 reserves. Russia also has distinct technological advantages, and is attacking from the air, land and sea from three different directions.

“Russia is amongst the most powerful countries in the world. It’s clearly one of the three most powerful (countries). And Ukraine is a medium-sized, struggling European country that has had to rebuild its military essentially from scratch since 2014.

“There’s no doubt the Ukrainian military can put up more significant resistance. However, it’s a little unfair to expect them to be able to stop a superpower.

“They are defending their territory rather than invading a foreign country so that confers some advantages. Nonetheless, Russia clearly has more forces at its disposal, and Putin has shown by his behaviour so far that he’s willing to incur significant losses to achieve its objective of destroying Ukraine as a state.”

What is Canada doing?

“Canada has been a diplomatic supporter of Ukraine for years and has been supporting Ukraine financially and with training of its police and military.

“More recently, Canada has, after some hesitation, agreed to send Ukraine some military assistance and has now also announced some new sanctions.

“At the same time, Canada is not one of the biggest players in NATO and has a limited ability to define the NATO response. It can certainly be on a team advocating for stricter sanctions against Russia or more robust response to Russian aggression.”

The U.S. and the EU have also imposed sanctions on Russia and, notably, Germany has put a hold on the operating licence for the Nord Stream-2 pipeline, which is meant to bring 55 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually from northern Russia to Germany.

But it’s not clear if those type of sanctions are a deterrent, said Light.

“It’s clear that no NATO government, including the U.S., wishes to send troops to help defend Ukraine against Russian invasion. But it’s also clear that the rather tepid and limited sanctions that have been imposed on Russia in the past have failed.

“Sanctions were imposed right after the initial round of invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Some people thought that they might restrain Russia from a more serious act of aggression.

“If that was ever true, it’s no longer true.

“Russia has concluded that whatever sanctions are going to be applied will not be sufficiently damaging to outweigh the benefits it gets from conquering Ukraine.

“As an analogy, imagine that you have a homeowner who is told that if they kill their neighbour and occupy their neighbour’s house, they will be required to pay a $10,000 fine … you might be willing to pay it if you could get what you wanted and what you get has much greater value — and that appears to be where we are with Russia.”

Is there a concern about the danger from Russian escalation outside of Ukraine?

“I don’t see how there could not be.

“We can imagine a situation in which Russia has achieved its main objectives in Ukraine. That means that Russia has essentially conquered a large chunk of Eastern Europe and is in a position to place the kind of demands that were just rejected by NATO back on the table and insist that they be accepted,” said Light.

Some of those earlier Putin demands were for limiting future NATO memberships for post-Soviet countries and limiting troops and bases in existing NATO countries.

Those demands, said Light, would clearly strengthen Putin’s military posture in Europe, and there would be a strong temptation to acquiesce to at least some of them, further weakening countries’ faith in NATO.

“We should not be under any doubts that this would be a serious defeat for NATO,” he said.

“The worst-case scenario seems to be getting worse and worse.

“It’s certainly not hard to imagine a scenario in which Russia conquers Ukraine, ousts its government and then is in a position to dictate terms to NATO and to the rest of Europe, and essentially is then the dominant power in Europe.”

NATO would need to turn its attention to reinforcing defences for its member countries that would then be threatened by Russia, Light said — a process already under way in Poland and the Baltic states.

“There’s just no way around it. If Putin wins the war in Ukraine, he has increased his strength relative to NATO and to the rest of Europe dramatically.

“Canada is a medium-sized country, like Ukraine, that wishes to remain independent and sovereign and to live in a world in which the sovereignty of medium-sized countries like Canada and Ukraine is respected.

“And that’s going to be much harder if Ukraine is snuffed out as a free democratic sovereign state.”

Steve McKinley is a Halifax-based reporter for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @smckinley1