‘I don’t know anyone who thinks he can survive.’ Conservative caucus primed to call leadership review on Erin O’Toole

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This article was published 30/01/2022 (1061 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

OTTAWA—Erin O’Toole’s time as leader of the federal Conservative party could be up.

At least 35 MPs have put their names to a letter calling for a vote on his leadership after months of private and public infighting over his fitness to lead the party to government, multiple sources have told the Star.

That number easily clears the legal bar for a parliamentary caucus to trigger a review of a leader, and the next step is a secret ballot vote.

If a majority — which for the Conservatives is 60 MPs — vote to oust him, he would be gone, immediately.

And multiple sources told the Star late Monday they believe that will be the case.

“I don’t know anyone who thinks he can survive,” who, like others interviewed for this story, was granted anonymity to discuss internal party matters. “There are enough people who just want him gone.”

Efforts to get enough MPs to force a leadership vote have been underway since the Conservatives failed to form government in the 2021 election.

While they did win the popular vote, and picked up seats in the Atlantic provinces and elsewhere, they also lost seats in the Tory heartland of Alberta, and several in B.C. and the Greater Toronto Area — two regions O’Toole had promised he’d deliver breakthroughs.

Why he didn’t was the subject of an election review presented to MPs last week in the latest in what’s become a series of increasingly strained caucus meetings for the Conservatives going back to last fall.

Among the pressure points: A surprise motion to speed through a bill banning conversion therapy; perceived unfair treatment of certain MPs; a newly ignited debate over Quebec’s Bill 21; lacklustre polling numbers and a sense that O’Toole was flailing around and not picking a single message and sticking with it.

A sign the process to oust O’Toole might be gaining steam came earlier in January, when members of the Saskatchewan caucus rejected a motion to oust Sen. Denise Batters from their parliamentary grouping.

She’d been booted from national caucus after launching a petition calling for an earlier leadership review, citing O’Toole’s abandonment of Conservative principles, but had remained part of the regional group as well as the Senate’s Conservative caucus.

Though Saskatchewan MPs were warned that failing to remove her would be seen as directly defying O’Toole, they overwhelmingly voted to keep her at the table.

As recently as last Friday, sources told the Star that those opposed to O’Toole were biding their time, trying to increase the number of supporters behind them and then waiting for the right moment to call for the vote.

But over the weekend, O’Toole’s own backers began to try rallying people to their side, angling to force a show of support for the leader in a bid to put the issue to rest.

Their efforts instead galvanized the signatories demanding a review.

Tensions were already running high following last week’s caucus meeting and the release of results of the party’s internal election review to MPs, which many felt sugar-coated the role O’Toole played.

“The whole thing was a joke,” one MP said.

Calgary MP Bob Benzen — who had endorsed O’Toole for leadership — characterized his decision to call for a review as a result of the report, but also listed a legion of grievances that date back before the election.

“I feel the Conservative caucus has given Mr. O’Toole more than enough chances for a course correction to resolve the concerns of many of the grassroots members of our party,” he said in a statement.

“I believe a caucus leadership review is the only way to avoid a dangerous split in the Conservative party that may not be repairable.”

O’Toole’s answer to the call for a vote? Good, he said in a statement late Monday night.

“It’s time for a reckoning. To settle this in caucus. Right here. Right now. Once and for all,” he wrote on Facebook.

“Anger vs. Optimism. That is the choice in simple terms. I will accept the result of this vote. The signers of this letter must accept it, too. They brought it. They’ll have to live with it.”

Some sources told the Star late Monday they think O’Toole can survive, with those close to him telling others they have at least 80 MPs on their side.

Other MPs immediately discounted that, but both O’Toole’s supporters and opponents noted a similar issue — even if he wins, can he stay?

“If Erin clings on, is he willing to keep going with a third of the caucus wanting him gone?” one MP said to the Star.

Another MP and signatory to the letter, Garnett Genuis, said those who have signed represent a broad cross-section of opinion.

“Mr. O’Toole should recognize his position is untenable,” Genuis said on social media.

The letter demanding the review was handed to caucus chair Scott Reid Sunday, sources told the Star.

While the Reform Act — the law which allows for MPs to vote out their leader — stipulates the content of the written notice is to be made public, it was unclear late Monday whether Reid would release it.

The law also states that if O’Toole fails to survive the vote, an interim leader would be chosen immediately.

Among the names that surfaced Monday was former leader Andrew Scheer, who resigned in December 2019.

Reached by the Star Monday, he responded to that idea with a laugh.

“It is categorically false,” Scheer said. “And if you want a second source to confirm that, you can talk to my wife Jill.”

Stephanie Levitz is an Ottawa-based reporter covering federal politics for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @StephanieLevitz