Tories spin their wheels, stuck in rut: poll

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This article was published 08/12/2022 (650 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Heather Stefanson’s Tories remain in a slump, well behind the front-running NDP in the run-up to Tuesday’s byelection, which will be another critical test of her leadership as the party tries to hold Kirkfield Park.

A new poll from Probe Research shows the government has failed to gain voter support, despite promising $200 million to bolster health-care staffing, introducing a plan to fight violent crime, and taking measures to stabilize Manitoba Hydro and cap power bills.

The New Democratic Party remains on top, at 46 per cent cent. Thirty-five per cent prefer the governing PCs. The NDP gained two percentage points, while the PCs lost two percentage points, since the last poll, which was taken in September. The margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

The results of the quarterly survey, conducted among 1,000 adults in Manitoba between Nov. 22 and Dec. 5, are pretty much what pollster Scott MacKay said he had expected.

“You can have policy announcements here and there that some odd person might notice. But unless there is quite a major, major development or policy positions or some announcements with real teeth, I don’t think people really notice them,” the Probe president and founder said Friday.

“My expectation… was that there would be no change. And there we are.”

The PCs have been in a slump since December 2020 — nine months after the global pandemic was declared — when the NDP first overtook them in the polls. Since then, PC poll numbers have dropped while support for the NDP has increased.

“I’ve never seen a governing party, in 30 years of watching polling, so low in the polls for such a long period of time,” said University of Manitoba political studies Prof. Christopher Adams.

In Winnipeg, NDP support increased slightly to 55 per cent, up from 52 per cent in September. Support for the PCs was 27 per cent — up two points from the last quarter.

The 28-point gap between the NDP and the PCs in Winnipeg is “astronomical,” Adams said.

The NDP has a sizeable lead in all parts of the city, except for the northwest, where it’s just one point.

“The PCs really don’t have any fortress in Winnipeg right now,” said Adams.

Winnipeg has the most seats in the legislature, so the winning party needs to take the city.

Having the first female leader sworn in as premier hasn’t helped the PCs with female voters in the city, polling shows. In 2021, the PCs replaced their unpopular leader, Brian Pallister, with Stefanson, who has turned out to be just as unpopular.

“The gap between between the PCs and the NDP is just astonishing for women,” Adams said. In Winnipeg, 66 per cent of women support the NDP versus 19 per cent for the PCs. “That’s just stunning.” Forty-two per cent of men, who typically favour the PCs, prefer the NDP, while just 36 per cent of Winnipeg men prefer the PCs.

“The PCs are only doing well outside of Winnipeg — 49 per cent versus 32 for the NDP. That’s the only place that they look like they would be winning seats in the next election if this poll were to hold,” said Adams.

Manitoba Liberals, meanwhile, have had a four-point drop in Winnipeg since September, to 15 per cent.

“They’ve sort of had a failure to launch, as well,” MacKay said.

With the next election not due until Oct. 3, 2023, things could change, especially for the Tories, MacKay said.

“Events can happen that can change things,” he said.

He pointed to the Oct. 26 race for mayor in Winnipeg. Front-runner Glenn Murray was far ahead in early polls, but ended up losing to Scott Gillingham after questions were raised about his conduct at a former job in Alberta.

“We looked at Murray’s support and thought, ‘My God, what could ever happen to stop this guy from being the mayor?’” MacKay said. “But then, look what happened.”

Something similar could happen provincially.

“I would never say never on this,” the Probe founder said. “(The Tories) still have the keys to the legislature for almost a year, and there’s stuff they can do. It’s not looking good, but I think it’s possible that things could shift, still.”

Adams said unless the Tories resolve what appears to be an “intractable” health care crisis, “things are dire for the PCs.”

“There are two policy sectors about which middle-class voters care very much: those are education and health,” said Adams. “If you’ve got a crisis in either of those two, then you’re in real trouble.”

carol.sanders@freepress.mb.ca