Kirkfield Park a challenge for Tories

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This article was published 16/10/2022 (704 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The governing Tories are off to a slow start in the race to fill former cabinet minister Scott Fielding’s seat, with dismal polling and the civic election frustrating the search for a candidate as the deadline approaches to drop the writ in Kirkfield Park.

The Progressive Conservatives have yet to nominate a candidate in a constituency they tend to win.

A byelection to replace Scott Fielding, a former cabinet minister, must be held by Dec. 13, under provincial law. However, the PCs could drop the writ at any time, sparking a 29- to 35-day election period.

Fielding, who was elected in 2016, resigned in June to take on a job with consulting firm KPMG Canada. Premier Heather Stefanson said a number of people have expressed interest in seeking the Tory nomination.

“We’ll just take it due course,” Stefanson said when questioned about why her party has not nominated a candidate. “We know when the deadline is and we’ll continue to move in that direction.”

The New Democratic Party and the Green party have selected their candidates. New Democrat Logan Oxenham has been door-knocking since early September. The Manitoba Liberal party says it is in the process of nominating a candidate.

University of Manitoba political studies professor Royce Koop said recent public opinion polls and sinking popularity for PCs are two probable explanations for why the party has been slow out of the gate in Kirkfield Park.

“Everyone can see the polls right now in Winnipeg,” Koop said. “Many people who we might think of as quality candidates, who would otherwise run in a fair race, are probably feeling like they want to take a pass on this.”

A recent Free Press-CTV Winnipeg poll conducted by Probe Research found 44 per cent of Manitobans said if an election were held today, they would vote for the NDP; 37 per cent said they would cast a ballot for the Tories. In Winnipeg, the NDP was at 52 per cent and the Tories at 25 per cent.

Koop said while the PC candidate may have a shot at winning, running in a race where voters can express disappointment in the government is a significant challenge, Koop said.

“It’s real sacrifice and doing that when there’s a sense that you can’t win, being that kind of sacrificial lamb, it’s pretty tough,” he said. “On the one hand, the parties want a strong candidate who is going to be a good ambassador to the party. On the other, if you’ve got those qualities, you’re not going to be running a race where your chances of winning appear to be quite low.”

In addition, the civic election in Winnipeg is putting a drain on the volunteer resources needed to launch a Tory campaign, said U of M political studies professor emeritus Paul Thomas.

However, the PCs could also be waiting to see how the mayoral campaign concludes, he said.

“There may be a candidate running in the civic election who is the preferred choice of the party leader to run,” Thomas said. “Scott Gillingham could be that candidate.”

“If he fails to become mayor… given his city experience and fiscally conservative viewpoints, he would be a credible candidate,” Thomas said.

Gillingham ran for the PCs in 2011, earning 38.22 per cent of the vote in St. James.

While poaching an unsuccessful mayoral contender is a good strategy, Koop said the Kirkfield Park byelection would be a tough sell, particularly given the party’s lack of competitiveness heading into the 2023 election.

As time goes on and polls numbers continue to be low, the “number of carrots that Heather Stefanson has to offer potential candidate gets worse and worse,” Koop said.

Asked whether the Tories will nominate a candidate before the civic election concludes on Oct. 26, Stefanson said those decisions are not up to her.

“That’s up to the process and the party to make those decisions,” she said.

In an emailed statement, the PC party said it is in discussion with “many potential candidates.” A nomination meeting will be scheduled once internal processes are complete, the party said.

On Thursday, the Green party announced Dennis Bayomi as its candidate in Kirkfield Park. A nomination meeting was held Sept. 25.

“I’m honoured to have been nominated and eagerly look forward to having many conversations at the doors of my fellow Kirkfield Park residents,” the semi-retired information technology professional said in a release.

“Together, and we absolutely have to work together, we can tackle the numerous challenges we face today, especially the climate emergency, affordability crisis, health and our health-care system, social inequities, and reforming our outdated electoral system.”

danielle.dasilva@freepress.mb.ca