Abortion issue may decide next federal ballot

Opinion

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This article was published 09/05/2022 (961 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

To listen to some pundits and politicians, Canada is about to be dragged into a new, national debate on abortion in the wake of an expected decision by the United States Supreme Court to strike down Roe v. Wade.

A landmark high-court decision in 1973 that guaranteed a woman’s constitutional right to choose to have an abortion without government interference appears headed for the scrap heap. A leaked draft decision from the socially conservative Supreme Court, published last week by Politico, overrules Roe v. Wade, essentially paving the way for states to introduce laws banning abortion.

Remarkably, 18 states already have so-called “trigger laws,” which would kick into effect if and when Roe v. Wade is formally overturned. Although the decision would not make abortion illegal, it is widely believed that up to three-quarters of American women could live in states that either severely restrict access or ban the procedure outright.

In some ways, it’s dismaying that a decision to possibly reverse Roe v. Wade is threatening to invade the Canadian political debate. Our two countries have profoundly different histories and experiences when it comes to abortion.

Traditionally, about three-quarters of Canadians support access to abortion with some limitations. More importantly, most opinion polls find that only five to 10 per cent of Canadians believe abortion should be banned in all circumstances.

In the U.S., surveys show about 60 per cent of Americans support legal access to abortion. However, almost everyone else would make abortion illegal in almost all situations. That is a pretty polarized electorate.

If Canadians are, by and large, satisfied with our approach to abortion services, why do we need to have a political debate at all?

Political opportunism and concerns about a lack of access to abortions have sparked interest in Canada, particularly within the ranks of the federal Liberal government.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was quick to seize upon the Roe v. Wade leak and promise to take steps to protect access to abortion. He also mischievously observed that abortion was likely to become a divisive issue in the Conservative Party leadership race.

In taunting the Tories, Trudeau is only following a tried-and-true Liberal strategy of drawing the CPC into contentious debates that put them on the wrong side of public opinion.

In most federal election campaigns, Liberals are quick to bring up issues like gun control with the comfort of knowing the Tories and their pro-gun sensibilities are at odds with the vast majority of Canadians, who would like more restrictions on firearms.

On the abortion file, while 10 per cent or less of Canadians oppose abortion under any circumstances, that number rises to about 30 per cent among those who are militant CPC supporters. Trudeau knows the next leader of the CPC will have to take a stand on abortion that will either anger the party’s socially conservative base of support, or the vast majority of Canadian voters.

But it’s not just political opportunism that is driving an abortion debate in this country.

Abortion has been legal in Canada since 1988, when our Supreme Court decided a law banning the procedure violated a woman’s constitutional right to “life, liberty and security of the person.” Since then, abortion has been publicly funded as a medical procedure in all provinces and territories.

Even so, the provinces have widely varying rules about where and when an abortion can be performed.

In some provinces, abortions can only be performed in hospitals, a policy that requires women to travel long distances. There are also huge variations in how late a province will perform an abortion.

Although abortion is legal at any stage, health data show more than 90 per cent of all abortions are performed at no later than 12 weeks of pregnancy. Just less than three per cent of all abortions are done beyond 21 weeks.

However, because provinces currently have control over the procedure, there is a broad range of limits. It ranges from 24 weeks (Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario) to just 12 weeks in Prince Edward Island. Manitoba allows abortions up to 16 weeks in clinics, and 19 weeks and six days in hospital.

These variations, and the possibility a provincial government could at any time be swayed by the debate in the U.S., have abortion activists, and many women, in this country on high alert.

The Women’s Health Clinic in Winnipeg recently reported a spike in calls in the wake of stories about the draft decision on Roe v. Wade. A clinic spokeswoman said the mere suggestion that abortion access could be eliminated for American women has Winnipeg women “feeling like it can happen to us, it can happen to them here.”

It would be naive to suggest that a ban on abortions couldn’t happen here although, for the reasons outlined above, it’s a very steep hill to climb for any politician or party. Even so, it appears likely that politicians on both sides of the issue will be drawn into this divisive debate. 

For candidates seeking the leadership of the CPC, abortion is already an issue, one that may well decide the race.

For the Liberals and other left-of-centre opposition parties, abortion may well turn out to be an issue that helps decide the next election.

dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com