Severe flood fears diminish as weather co-operates

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This article was published 28/03/2022 (1040 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Manitoba appears to have again dodged a severe flooding bullet, as initial predictions influenced by the snow-heavy winter have been downgraded by the province.

An update from the province March 25 shows a more positive forecast come spring, than what was suggested in its previous update in February.

Major snowfall this winter had put the province on high alert for severe flooding. But the weather in the last two weeks has been amicable, with no significant rain or snowfall and temperatures hovering around 0 C, causing a more gradual melt and giving the water more time to be absorbed into the ground.

“In other words, this is very good news, because Mother Nature has been co-operating very favourably, and that’s why we have downgraded our flood predictions from our March outlook,” Fisaha Unduche, executive director of hydrologic forecasting and water management, said at a news briefing Friday.

Should conditions hit average levels, this flooding season will look similar to 2020, and if conditions become more favourable, it’ll look similar to 2019 — both relatively mild.

As of Monday, just 16 homes in Winnipeg are forecast to be impacted by river flooding and may require temporary dikes.

Flooding predictions now mirror what the province experienced in 2017. Red River levels are set to hit anywhere from 15.5 to 20 feet, and from now until the end of May, the province is expecting 70 millimetres of precipitation — lower than the considered normal level of 80 mm.

As of Monday afternoon, the river level at the James Avenue gauge was 10.72 feet.

The Red River Floodway will still be in operation, in the case of a spring weather event.

Much of the snow in the United States portion of Manitoba’s drainage basins has already melted, and the Red River in Fargo, N.D., crested late Sunday at around 23.5 feet, National Weather Service hydrologist Amanda Lee told the Free Press.

Grand Forks is close to cresting, as of Monday, Lee said. And while ice may make its way from Red Lake River into the Red River and impact affect levels, it’s currently sitting at 34.1 feet.

“Things could have been a lot worse, especially if we would have had some rainfall or something on top of the snow melt,” Lee said Monday. “So we’re expecting that flood crest to kind of continue to make its way northward toward you folks later this weekend, maybe early next week, across the border.”

While there’s still snow cover to account for in Manitoba, Lee said she expects it will remain manageable.

“You’re still going to have to see that get into the river, on top of the water that we’re sending you, too, but our contribution being smaller will really help things out,” she said. “So it kind of depends on timing, too. If any additional weather systems come through, that might impact you as you’re melting and that runoff’s getting into the river.”

Nine gauges to monitor water levels have been installed in southern Manitoba, and four more will be installed later in the year.

malak.abas@freepress.mb.ca