Colour-coded system helps beat fear factor

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 18/08/2020 (1493 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The part I like about the province’s new pandemic alert system is it should help take the focus off the daily obsession with COVID-19 case numbers, while providing the public with more useful information to help them live more normal lives again.

Dr. Brent Roussin, the province’s chief public health officer, released a 75-page plan Wednesday that lays out the criteria the province will use to assess the risk of outbreaks in different areas of the province, including expected measures to respond to them. It’s a colour-coded alert system with four risk levels that will apply to the province as a whole, to regions, communities, and individual locations (such as schools and businesses).

It will allow public health officials to notify the public of growing risks in targeted areas, while tailoring specific measures to address them. The plan also lays out in detail what indicators will be used to assess those risks – including test positivity rates, hospital capacity, community transmission, and visits to the ER by people with influenza-like symptoms. It attempts to share with the public what public health officials look at when deciding when, or if, measures should be reinstated to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

Hopefully it reinforces the message that we need to look beyond daily case numbers to properly assess where we’re at in the pandemic.

“No single indicator – such as the number of cases – should or will be used to determine risk and response levels in Manitoba,” the plan states in bold letters. “A combination of these indicators considered together will be used by public health.”

It’s a useful approach that’s been fashioned after similar alert systems in other jurisdictions, and for other purposes such as forest fire alerts. It’s deliberately simple; a colour-coded system the public can easily understand.

Manitoba is currently at the yellow stage; the second-lowest level, which signifies low to moderate community transmission. That means based on all the risk indicators used (including testing and contact-tracing capacity, as well as the supply of personal protective equipment), the management of the virus in Manitoba is largely under control.

There have been clusters of new cases, such as in Brandon. If the situation worsens there (based on a variety of indicators, not just new cases) the risk level could be elevated. That would come with specific measures and restrictions that could be imposed for that community alone. It wouldn’t necessarily affect other parts of the province.

That’s important because while there have been outbreaks in some parts of Manitoba, other areas (including Winnipeg) have seen less of the virus.

It’s not a perfect system (there isn’t one). But it should give the public more useful information than simply focusing on how many new cases there are every day in Manitoba. More importantly, it gives the public some idea of what would trigger the reinstatement of certain restrictions in targeted areas, or at certain locations, like a bar or restaurant.

What it won’t do (and can’t do) is provide the public with specific metrics – like how many new cases, how much hospital overcrowding, or what infection rate would result in an alert change. That’s because the indicators are interrelated and are considered together. Ultimately a judgment call is made based on the analysis of all the relevant data. If several indicators change at the same time, the risk level could be altered.

That doesn’t mean COVID-19 case counts and positivity rates won’t be released every day as they have in the past. They will. But the alert system should help put that data in context and provide the public with more targeted information. It will give the public a better understanding of the risks in their area so they can take appropriate steps to protect themselves and others.

This is what it means to live with the coronavirus. The public needs good, relevant information. And they need to know when to take extra precautions (particularly people who are high risk, such as seniors and those with weakened immune systems).

It’s a good step in helping inform people, while alleviating the fear factor.