The rudderless ship

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This article was published 27/01/2017 (2792 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It’s been more than nine months since Greg Selinger announced he was stepping down as leader of the vanquished NDP, and so far nobody has firmly declared an interest in succeeding him.

Several party caucus members have said they are contemplating a run for the leadership, as has Michelle McHale, who helped organize last year’s Steinbach Pride event. A few other prominent NDPers haven’t ruled out a bid.

But New Democrats are hardly rushing to apply for the job. To put it bluntly, the position of Manitoba NDP party leader is not the prize it once was.

“It’s not like it’s a brilliant career move… right now,” says Christopher Adams, a Winnipeg political scientist.

Past leadership battles have cast a pall over a party that remains largely divided into camps. The NDP’s 13-member caucus has struggled to mount an effective Opposition to the Pallister government. Selinger remains in caucus but plays a very small public role. The performance of his choice as interim party leader, Flor Marcelino, has been underwhelming. Her handling of allegations of verbal sexual harassment against MLA Mohinder Saran has been clumsy.

With former Point Douglas MLA Kevin Chief now out of politics, there is no perceived leadership front-runner.

Who will wind up taking on the largely thankless job of rebuilding and rebranding the party? We won’t know until the NDP holds its leadership convention in Winnipeg in mid-September.

When will candidates begin to formally throw their hats into the ring? Perhaps not for another six weeks. The party is holding a policy convention in Winnipeg March 17-19. That’s when the rules governing the leadership contest will be hammered out. It’s expected would-be leadership hopefuls are keeping their powder dry until then.

Testing the waters

Wab Kinew, an author, musician, broadcaster and former university administrator first elected to the legislature last April, said he’s contemplating a leadership run.

“I haven’t made a decision firmly one way or the other, but I’m open to it,” the 35-year-old said.

But in a recent interview, Kinew (Fort Rouge) said he would also be open to supporting someone else, “if they were the right person to lead the party.”

Another rookie MLA, Nahanni Fontaine, said she is also seriously contemplating a run.

Fontaine, a longtime advocate for missing and murdered indigenous women and girls and, until her election last spring, the province’s special adviser on aboriginal women’s issues, called it “a very sacred responsibility” to be potentially in line to be premier.

But the St. Johns MLA places a caveat on a leadership bid. “You’d have to really know and believe that you could really effect change,” she said.

Fontaine said she could also see herself supporting a bid by her colleague, Kinew. “I have a lot of love and respect for my colleague Wab, and I don’t think it’s going to be very effective if both of us run.”

A third caucus member, Matt Wiebe, is also testing the waters. First elected in a 2010 byelection in Concordia — where he replaced Gary Doer — he served as caucus chairman under Selinger before the last election.

“I am listening to members of the party. I’m listening to constituents to find out what their priorities are. I am getting a lot of encouragement (to seek the leadership), particularly from the grassroots,” he said.

Wiebe, a longtime party foot soldier and former constituency executive assistant to Doer, said he needs to do a lot more “reaching out” to folks before taking the plunge.

Outside the caucus, McHale, who after organizing last year’s Steinbach Pride has since landed a job as a union rep with UFCW Local 832, said she’s “having lots of conversations” with a wide range of party members about a potential run.

McHale, who previously worked in the public health and community mental-health fields, said she has the skills needed to rebuild the party.

“That’s the skill set that I have — bridge-building, community-building, organizing,” she said.

The elephant in the room

He lost what was considered one of the safest NDP seats in the province in last year’s Tory sweep, bringing an end to a string of personal victories in the Thompson riding dating back to 1981.

But many NDPers believe Steve Ashton is plotting a comeback — and a third leadership challenge. (He lost to Greg Selinger in 2009 and 2015.)

“Steve is running, no question. This is all he’s ever wanted,” said one longtime party member.

After Ashton — who did not respond to an interview request this week — lost his seat last spring, he assisted in the party’s transition from government to official Opposition, sharing an office within the NDP caucus for a time.

His influence or potential influence on the current regime is significant. His allies and/or past leadership supporters hold key positions at the legislature. Jim Maloway (Elmwood) is the party’s house leader. Flin Flon MLA Tom Lindsey is the new caucus chairman. Christopher Sanderson, who helped run his last leadership campaign, is the caucus’s communications and policy director.

At the most recent meeting of the party’s provincial council, a body of more than 100 people from across Manitoba that calls the shots between party conventions, Ashton is reported to have lobbied hard for an amendment to proposed leadership-selection rules that would have allowed candidates to sell party memberships until 30 days before the leadership convention. Council members opted to accept a rules committee recommendation that only party members in good standing 90 days in advance of the leadership vote could participate. But the issue is likely to be reopened again at the party’s AGM in March.

Some within the NDP view Ashton’s efforts at the provincial council meeting, which was closed to the media, as proof he will again contest the leadership. They say a later membership-sales cutoff would give him an advantage in the immigrant community, whose support he’s successfully tapped in the past.

With the party starving for funds, the leadership race greatly favours a candidate who won’t depend on it for financial support. MLAs already command a basic annual salary of $93,025, giving them an edge on potential competitors from outside of caucus.

But Ashton — because of his 35 years of service in the legislature — is not at the same disadvantage. The Canadian Taxpayers Federation estimated his annual pension to be worth $86,000.

Emotions still raw

With the NDP about to hold its third leadership convention in less than eight years, emotions from past contests are still raw in some quarters.

There is resentment against the so-called Gang of Five cabinet ministers who revolted against Greg Selinger in the fall of 2014, sparking the bitter 2015 leadership contest, in which Selinger eked out a 33-vote victory against runner-up Theresa Oswald. There is resentment against Greg Selinger for failing to see the writing on the wall, resign and make way for a new leader who would have stood a better chance against Brian Pallister’s Progressive Conservatives.

In the coming months, each potential leadership candidate will be — rightly or wrongly — identified or assigned to a particular camp — be it the ‘Selinger camp,’ the ‘Ashton camp’ or the ‘Oswald camp.’

All those who have said they are considering a leadership run deny they are part of any camp.

Kinew was recruited by Selinger to run in Fort Rouge but rejected the idea he’s a Selinger man per se. He said he “has a lot of respect” for Selinger, but he’s quick to point out he didn’t always agree with the former premier and spoke out against the NDP’s decision to raise the PST.

Wiebe, as government caucus chairman in 2015, remained neutral during the last leadership campaign, although he is believed to have voted for Oswald.

McHale has been slotted by some as being in the Selinger camp because she has sought advice from a former Selinger organizer, Geof Langen. She refuses to be categorized in this way. She said she and Langen know each other because they’re both involved in the Pride community.

“Am I chatting with him? Yes. And do I ask his opinion? Of course, because he’s been involved (in politics) for quite a long time,” she said of Langen.

During the last leadership contest, Ashton tried to portray himself as a party uniter. Ironically, he could forge an uneasy alliance among former Selinger and Oswald supporters should he again challenge for the leadership. The situation would be reminiscent of the 2009 leadership contest when then-leadership hopeful Andrew Swan and his backers (which included Oswald and other centrist New Democrats) threw their support to Selinger after Swan’s campaign stalled to ensure Ashton didn’t win.

Will Swan revive his leadership aspirations — despite the polarizing effect that might have as a former Gang of Five member? Will Oswald, the Selinger dissidents’ choice as leader, make a comeback?

“I have not turned my mind to the question of running for leader,” said Swan in a text. Pressed further, he said: “I’m not ruling anything out.”

Reached recently by telephone, Oswald’s response was enigmatic: “My life right now is about looking at doors that are opening. I’m not closing any doors, and I would include this one. But I did make a very serious decision to leave politics, and it was the right decision for me.”

larry.kusch@freepress.mb.ca