Crime will loom large in civic election

Opinion

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This article was published 04/08/2022 (777 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

LATE last week, Charleswood-Tuxedo-Westwood Councillor Kevin Klein entered the crowded Winnipeg mayoral election campaign. Klein is a talented communicator and politician; he will certainly be a factor over the course of the campaign.

In explaining his decision to run, Klein zeroed in on crime and public safety. He claimed he will bring something different to the field of candidates, with his strong emphasis on public safety. Klein, a former chair of the Winnipeg Police Board, brings credentials to this role. “I’ve been pushing for safe neighbourhoods,” he said.

Politicians bring their own beliefs and convictions when they run for public office, but they are also attuned to public opinion and what is on the minds of the voting public. After a summer of shocking random violence in our city, Klein is right to zero in on public safety as an issue that is preoccupying many Winnipeggers.

But Klein is treading on well-tilled soil: there are other talented candidates running for mayor who have identified public safety as a major concern.

Coun. Scott Gillingham (St. James), consistent with his policy-heavy campaign, has made several campaign announcements directly aimed at the issue. Gillingham has promised to have a special adviser on issues related to street safety and, as mayor, would himself sit on the police board to ensure it focuses on crime-prevention strategies.

Gillingham followed this up with a 10-point plan to refocus the Winnipeg Police Service on crime prevention rather than reacting after crimes take place.

Former mayor Glen Murray has not matched Gillingham’s detailed policy proposals, but has made up for that with attention-grabbing commitments. In a widely retweeted post, Murray claimed restaurant owners were telling him to “bring back the friggin’ beat cops” and contrasted the seeming disappearance of officers walking a beat with the WPS’s pricey helicopter, which Murray has promised to do away with.

“I want to see someone walking around,” Murray said of the proposed officers. “Looking at a helicopter 5,000 feet in the sky over my restaurant while someone is being attacked on my patio is not helping me.”

Murray has been a politician for a very long time, and knows how to grab headlines with a clever turn of phrase.

These candidates are on the right track: Winnipeggers are concerned about crime and they have a right to have those concerns addressed. After all, we want politicians to be responsive to rather than aloof from the public. Further, many of the proposals raised have been thoughtful and solution oriented. Rather than trying to whip public concern into a frenzy for their own benefit, these candidates are paying us the compliment of presenting constructive proposals.

These candidates may have another audience watching how this focus on crime and public safety pays off in the mayoral race: Premier Heather Stefanson and her advisers.

Stefanson was supposed to provide the PC party with a reset when she became leader and premier last year. Instead, many of the difficulties that dragged down the government’s popularity have proven intractable, so Stefanson has remained low in the polls as a provincial election looms. The government is vulnerable on a range of issues, particularly bread-and-butter themes such as education and especially health care, where the NDP has a natural advantage over the Tories.

In contrast, crime and public safety are naturally Tory issues: in general, people trust parties of the right more than parties of the left to keep them safe. Rising concerns about crime therefore present an opportunity for the PCs to counter the NDP’s advantage on other issues.

NDP Leader Wab Kinew could potentially pull the rug out from under Stefanson on this issue by touting some tough-on-crime measures the NDP previously adopted while in government. But doing so could antagonize people in his own party who are skeptical about solutions such as community policing programs, and instead argue that Winnipeg is over-policed.

This sentiment plays well with the party’s activist base, but it might well become a millstone around the necks of candidates in such suburban seats as Southdale, Riel, Seine River and Fort Richmond, where the NDP must win to triumph in the next election.

There is some evidence Stefanson is taking notes. When WPS Chief Danny Smyth claimed recent violent crime in the city was “nothing new,” Stefanson went out of her way to criticize the chief, saying recent violence “cannot be the new normal in Winnipeg.”

“Let me be clear,” she continued, “violent attacks against innocent civilians will never be acceptable. Manitobans deserve to feel safe and protected in their community.”

That sounds like the premier auditioning for the role of the “law and order” candidate in the 2023 provincial election. But whether she ultimately takes on that role may depend on how crime and public safety first play out in Winnipeg’s upcoming municipal election.

Royce Koop is a professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba and academic director of the Centre for Social Science Research and Policy.