Questions, lessons float to surface in byelection wake

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This article was published 22/03/2022 (1010 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Progressive Conservatives won Tuesday’s byelection in the longtime Tory stronghold of Fort Whyte but lost the unofficial referendum on how they’re governing Manitoba, political experts say.

“The numbers speak for themselves,” University of Brandon political science Prof. Kelly Saunders said Wednesday.

Ibrahim (Obby) Khan beat Liberal candidate Willard Reaves by just 197 votes in a southwest Winnipeg riding that’s elected Tories by huge margins since its inception in 1999. Former premier Brian Pallister, who previously held the seat, bested his closest rival by nearly 4,000 votes in the 2019 general election.

“It shows that the party brand is really eroded and I think if it wasn’t for the fact that they had such a great candidate in Khan, they could have possibly lost that riding,” said Saunders.

“When you think about how the party has done there, historically — the massive margins Pallister won by — there’s no other way to read these results.”

The Tories will be looking at the byelection results carefully to see what lessons can be learned from nearly losing what had been considered a safe seat, agreed University of Manitoba adjunct political studies Prof. Christopher Adams.

“It’s a signal that the PCs have to be concerned about middle-class voters in Winnipeg,” Adams said. “There’s a whole lot of seats they’re going to have to work hard to hold onto in south Winnipeg — areas like Fort Richmond, Saint Norbert and St. Vital.”

There have been several signs of “serious trouble” for the PC government, particularly in Winnipeg constituencies, added Saunders.

“We’ve seen the steady trend in the polls, we see the letters to the editor, the ongoing gaffes that the premier in particular seems to be making and how that’s not playing out well with Manitobans,” she said.

The premier’s widely-reported comments about her son’s hockey win — in response to a question in the house about a critical care patient who died during an attempted COVID-19 care transfer out of province — could have affected PC voter turnout in Fort Whyte, said Adams.

Her leadership is also likely under scrutiny, he added.

“I would say that it is too early to say the party would have the knives out, but they will be watching to see how the next election goes,” Adams said. “The conservatives usually let their leaders run at least one one election, and then they have questions.”

The next provincial election must be held on or before Oct. 3, 2023.

The Fort Whyte byelection runner-up says he accepts the defeat, but not for long.

Reaves said Wednesday he plans to again seek the Liberal nomination and run in the 2023 general election. Until then, he’ll be closely watching Fort Whyte’s MLA-elect to make sure he’s doing a good job and representing constituents.

“If he doesn’t do it, we’re going to have another battle like this,” Reaves said of the close race. “And I can tell you right now, it might not be as close next time around.”

Both Khan and Reaves are former Winnipeg Blue Bombers players, and both were first-time candidates. (Trudy Schroeder of the NDP finished a distant third in Tuesday’s vote.)

“I know what it takes to make a walk in any political arena, and we did that,” said Reaves. “We took the Liberal party and made it very competitive in a PC stronghold.”

The political newcomer said the loss could be seen as a success.

“You didn’t win, but you succeeded in sending a message to a government that right now is reeling from controversy after controversy.”

On Wednesday, Khan visited his new workplace, observing an especially raucous question period from the visitors gallery. Within seconds, Speaker Myrna Driedger had to stand and call for order in the house.

“This is an orientation session for a new member,” Driedger said. “This is not the way to start it… I would ask for everybody’s co-operation, please, to demonstrate that democracy does work here in this chamber, that we respectfully listen to questions and answers and do what the people sent us here to do.”

Meanwhile, Elections Manitoba says it expects future results will roll in more quickly than in Tuesday’s byelection, thanks to new legislation that allows for the use of vote counting machines.

After the polls closed at 8 p.m., results were updated regularly every few minutes but seemed to stall after 10:30 p.m., when the race was too close to call. At 11:15 p.m., the unofficial results showed Khan as the clear winner by 197 votes.

“Whereas most polls have an average of 100 votes to count, the two advance polls had 1,353 and 981, respectively,” Elections Manitoba spokesperson Alison Mitchell said.

“With the new bill that was just passed, most votes will be counted by tabulator, which speeds the count up considerably.”

As for what appeared to be some confusion with the updated results at one point showing fewer ballots cast for the candidates, Mitchell said it was the result of trying to protect the confidentiality of a small number of mail-in ballots.

“To protect the secrecy of the vote, we pulled back the results of the vote by mail poll to add in the homebound votes. As homebound votes are so few, it’s preferable to combine with another poll so we don’t risk revealing how a voter voted,” she said.

“On the results page, it would have shown that the poll was reported but, for a brief period while the numbers were being updated, the votes from that poll weren’t included in the vote total.”

carol.sanders@freepress.mb.ca