Invading Ukraine has not gone as Putin planned. Will that make him more dangerous?

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This article was published 26/02/2022 (1035 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

WASHINGTON — Maybe because I was a Generation X kid who grew up haunted by nightmares of nuclear winter inspired by the TV movie “The Day After,” a newly urgent chill went down my spine Sunday morning when Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was responding to sanctions and “aggressive statements” by NATO leaders by putting his nuclear force on alert.

But it wasn’t just me. “This has now gone from being a crisis involving nuclear-armed countries to a nuclear crisis,” Georgetown University Professor and Brookings Institution foreign policy fellow Caitlin Talmadge wrote shortly after Putin’s public order.

Less than a week ago, American national security and Russia expert Tom Nichols wrote in The Atlantic that such a move was one of the possible ways this invasion of Ukraine could lead to a “Day After” scenario. “Perhaps Russian forces, for example, end up taking more casualties than Putin expected, and he wants to blame the West rather than admit the incompetence or errors of his own commanders,” he wrote, of the “frightening possibility” that Putin would raise the nuclear alert status, pushing the U.S. to respond in kind and raising the likelihood of blundering through error or accident into nuclear war.

The U.S., so far, has not taken the bait by raising its own alert status. On Sunday, the White House referred me to comments made by press secretary Jen Psaki in which she said the U.S. is always on an adequate state of alert to deal with threats from Russia, and that “this is really a pattern that we’ve seen from President Putin through the course of this conflict, which is manufacturing threats that don’t exist in order to justify further aggression.” She said the U.S. is ready to defend itself if needed, but suggested what was needed more here was to “call out” Putin’s attempt to generate a more aggressive response from the U.S.

That Putin made the threat — issuing orders to his uniformed generals on live television — is a pretty good sign this war of his is not going the way he hoped. The Ukrainians appear to be inflicting significant casualties on the Russian force. As I write this, four days into the invasion, the outmanned, outgunned Ukrainians have so far fended off takeovers of all major cities, holding out against long odds as ordinary citizens have grabbed machine guns and made Molotov cocktails to join the defence of their country.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the former comedian who former U.S. president Donald Trump tried to extort and Vladimir Putin has sent 150,000 or more troops to hunt, has emerged as the most celebrated European wartime leader since Winston Churchill. Sending out resolute videos from the streets of a capital under siege and sharing laughs with troops vowing to defend their country at whatever cost, he’s demonstrated a truth about strong leadership that the admirers of macho authoritarian strongmen seem to miss. Toughness doesn’t involve pushing people around — that’s bullying. Toughness is displayed in calmly refusing to be pushed around, standing up to bullies.

Watching Zelenskyy’s toughness in action, and that of his citizens, has inspired people around the world. “The spirit of the people is amazing. Just the unity,” Alan Cohen of Baltimore, Maryland, told me at a rally in support of Ukraine near the White House on Sunday as the Ukrainian national anthem blared in the background.

The demonstration of a few thousand people in Washington was one of hundreds in cities around the world — including many in Russia itself, where the protesters risk imprisonment for attending. Demonstrators were clearly motivated to come out not just to oppose Putin’s actions, but to support the heroics of Ukrainians. Many carried signs quoting Zelenskyy’s response to the U.S. offer to evacuate him (“I need ammunition, not a ride”) and still more bore the reported response of the Snake Island radio operator to a surrender order (“Russian warship, go f— yourself”).

Their resolve also seems to have stiffened the spines of western world leaders, who have daily ratcheted up sanctions to levels originally considered unlikely, banned Russia from flying in their skies, and pledged huge amounts of lethal military supplies to aid the Ukrainian defence effort.

In less than a week, Germany has overturned its long-standing policy on national security spending and aid to others under attack. The European Union has pledged for the first time to finance the purchase and delivery of weapons to a country under attack — possibly including fighter jets. Strongman-led Hungary and perpetually neutral Switzerland appear to be joining in the sanctions.

All of that to say, in addition to the military frustrations Putin has faced so far, much of the world has united against him in response to his war — his effort to weaken the global opposition to him has had the exact opposite effect.

Which may make this a very dangerous time. For Ukraine, and the world.

“The implications of an isolated, angry Putin presiding over a grinding, existential conventional war and an economy devastated by sanctions are really terrifying,” Samuel Charap, a political scientist with the Rand Corporation tweeted Sunday. “The chances of his accepting ‘defeat’ are far lower than the chances he escalates dramatically.”

Already, Russia appears to be moving toward targeting civilian infrastructure and moving to employ more destructive weaponry in population centres. And there is Putin’s nuclear sabre rattling, aimed not at Ukraine, but at the richer and more powerful countries of the world who have been inspired by its example.

The war has not gone as Putin planned, which many people around the world who believe in democracy can find inspiring and encouraging. But that doesn’t mean anyone can afford yet to find it comforting.

Edward Keenan is the Star’s Washington Bureau chief. He covers U.S. politics and current affairs. Reach him via email: ekeenan@thestar.ca