Erin O’Toole’s leadership may have become unsalvageable

Opinion

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This article was published 29/01/2022 (964 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Erin O’Toole became Conservative party leader on Aug. 24, 2020. It is beginning to look like he will not make his two-year anniversary.

The divisions that emerged this past week, between him and his chief caucus rival Pierre Poilievre over the truckers’ pointless convoy to Ottawa, may now have become unbridgeable. The convoy cost and raised a lot of money — all for nothing, as the U.S. forbids unvaxxed drivers from crossing the border, too.

But O’Toole’s shambolic media event Thursday night, where he flipped one more time to announce he would meet with the truckers’ convoy, may have sealed his fate. It came only hours after a stinging report to caucus on the 2021 campaign gaffes, and what it described as his problems with appearing “authentic” in the eyes of Canadian voters.

Make no mistake: according to several party insiders, it is the former Albertan Poilievre, the party’s finance critic, who has been carefully greasing the skids under his leader. Poilievre chose not to seek the leadership last time, say insiders, for “personal” reasons. He seems to have decided these reasons no longer apply, and has been cultivating allies to undermine O’Toole’s leadership for months.

The Conservative caucus clearly instructed O’Toole to ignore the humiliating attacks on him, and ordered him to meet with the truckers’ representatives. Some of those organizers are Islamophobic, antisemitic, white supremacists. Probably not wise for a leader who admitted the party’s problems with “new Canadians,” as he delicately termed them.

Unlike his rival, Erin O’Toole is decent, tolerant and thoughtful — if not tough enough to be a successful political leader. His are not the personal values required to lead the party of the angry that the Conservatives have become. Incredibly, former leader Andrew Scheer called Justin Trudeau this week “the greatest threat to freedom” in Canada. Under tough media questioning, O’Toole refused to denounce such language.

O’Toole’s efforts to nudge the party to the mainstream of Canadian politics failed as result of his inability to wield a credible stick. His failure to denounce Poilievre and Scheer signalled to treacherous MPs they need not fear retribution. This is not tenable for a leader seeking to stare down internal rivals — one cannot overstate how brutal would have been the retribution of a Jean Chrétien or a Brian Mulroney at such impertinence.

The internal rebels would be wise to reflect on what they wish for. A Poilievre-led Conservative party would probably do worse than any leader since Kim Campbell. Liberals and New Democrats will be drooling at the prospect of a contest with him for the support of the vast majority of Canadians who live in cities — people who believe in vaccination and racial and social inclusion, and who do not see political venom as the Trumpian motivator of their political choices. Mistaking angry Prairie voters, anti-vax truckers and Western separatists as a foundation for a national political party is simply delusional.

The 60,000 bewildered donors who contributed nearly $7 million to the convoy this week are troubling. The truckers’ violent rhetoric directed at the prime minister, journalists and non-white Canadians is very disturbing. But even if their supporters across Canada number in the tens of thousands more, together they represent a tiny fraction of Canadian voters.

The Conservative party caucus meeting next week will be at a minimum awkward, and more likely foreboding for O’Toole’s future. If violence did erupt on the Hill this weekend, the Conservatives will own some of it. If none of the party’s saner internal leaders stand and thunderously denounce those chipping away at O’Toole’s leadership, the clock will begin ticking for a sad but inevitable exit. So far, they have shown little gumption in challenging the Poilievre faction.

If this ends as it is increasingly looking like, the rebels will rue the day they unseated yet another Tory leader. The presumptive heir will not only fail to lead them to the Conservative promised land — he will take many others who joined the conspiracy down with him.

Robin V. Sears was an NDP strategist for 20 years and later served as a communications adviser to businesses and governments on three continents. He is a freelance contributing columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @robinvsears