Strategy apparent in Stefanson’s shuffle

Opinion

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This article was published 20/01/2022 (1070 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

CABINET shuffles can present premiers and prime ministers with both agonizing choices and rare opportunities. No wonder cabinet-making in Canada is often referred to as an art.

Now that Premier Heather Stefanson has assembled a cabinet of her own, we can try to figure out and assess the calculations behind the decisions made.

Premiers and prime ministers shuffle their cabinets for several reasons. The most obvious explanation for a cabinet reshuffle is to view it as a form of performance management: the premier will reward strong ministers with high-profile, tough portfolios, while underperforming ministers may be redirected to minor portfolios or shown the door altogether.

A somewhat more hidden reason premiers will shuffle is to consolidate their own power and position. Party leaders need to win elections, but they also have to master their parties and contain dissatisfaction. By promoting and demoting, premiers can reward loyalty and punish dissenters.

Finally, party leaders shuffle their cabinets both to refresh the government and signal future policy priorities. Governments can sometimes appear stale after periods in office, and the premier may shake things up with a cabinet shuffle. And if certain policy areas are going to be a priority for the premier, they may signal this by moving a heavy hitter into the relevant portfolio.

Stefanson faced expectations that she would use the cabinet shuffle to signal both new policy directions and a new approach to governing. Since winning the leadership several months ago, she has struggled to make a clean break from her unpopular predecessor, former premier Brian Pallister.

One result of this has been that Stefanson has been struggling in the polls, with one released this week showing she has the lowest job approval rating of any Canadian premier.

But these explanations for why and how Stefanson shuffled her cabinet run into the reality of politics in a comparably small place like Manitoba: when deciding who should fill which roles, there are simply not many MLAs to choose from. Even if Stefanson had wanted a full-on break from the past and a shiny new cabinet, there are not enough MLAs to do so.

Further, Stefanson has a long history in the party and knows who the strong and weak performers in the caucus are. The fact she received almost unanimous support from cabinet and caucus in the recent leadership race means there were no dissenters to banish to the backbenches.

The recent ejection of MLA Ron Schuler from cabinet over his views on vaccines seemed to tie up loose ends for Stefanson.

So instead of a wholesale shuffle, what we got was a rearrangement of portfolios with a small number of demotions and promotions.

On one hand, Stefanson has assembled a cabinet with trusted allies and performers that she can rely on heading into the next election. The likelihood of any self-inflicted crises is low. But on the other hand, the faces in the new cabinet are almost all largely familiar to Manitobans from Pallister’s government.

If Stefanson was hoping to signal a break from the past or trumpet a new and improved PC policy direction, it’s unlikely this cabinet will deliver that.

There is a strategic element to Stefanson’s cabinet decisions: following the reshuffle, almost all of south Winnipeg is now represented by MLAs in Stefanson’s cabinet. Jon Reyes (Waverley), Sarah Guillemard (Fort Richmond), Rochelle Squires (Riel), Audrey Gordon (Southdale) and Andrew Smith (Lagimodiere) were either elevated to or remained in the cabinet. Crucially, Gordon, who will likely have a tough fight on her hands to retain her seat in the next election, held onto the high-profile health portfolio.

Only Janice Morley-Lecomte (Seine River), who recently drew unwanted media attention when she failed to show proper proof of vaccination in a restaurant, was left out of cabinet. But Morley-Lecomte, despite her recent foibles, nevertheless received a consolation prize, becoming party whip. This will give the south Winnipeg MLA a boost in both profile and prestige.

And if former football player and current entrepreneur Obby Khan clinches Fort Whyte for the Tories in an upcoming byelection, it’s reasonable to expect Stefanson will soon find a place for the party’s star candidate in cabinet.

South Winnipeg seats will be a major battleground in the next election, and Stefanson used her cabinet shuffle to give as much of an advantage as possible to the Tory incumbents who will be hoping to fend off NDP challengers.

Stefanson’s shuffle will not help the party forge a new identity or policy direction under her leadership. Largely free from the need to use her appointment power to deal with challenges within the party, Stefanson instead used the opportunity to retain reliable ministers in cabinet and to help incumbent MLAs on whom the re-election will largely depend.

Given some of the constraints she faced, she seems to have made the best strategic decisions she could.

Royce Koop is a professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba and academic director of the Centre for Social Science Research and Policy.