Red zone, grey zone, twilight zone? Doug Ford loosens COVID-19 restrictions in a way that makes no sense — amid a backlash against public health

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 18/03/2021 (1335 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Because Ontario has been dragged though largely ineffective restrictions for months, then abandoned the restrictions that worked too early, there is a growing backlash against public health in Ontario. Some of the worst people in media are egging it on.

“It’s become crazy,” says Dr. Paul Roumeliotis, the medical officer of health for Eastern Ontario, and the chair of the Council of Ontario Medical Officers of Health. “Notwithstanding the attacks that I have been getting and medical officers of health have been getting from the public, what’s really bothering us now is the fact that all our staff are crying, they’re being screamed at, rude, sworn at, hung up on when we call for contact tracing.

“It’s terrible. I’ve asked the premier to address this at a press conference. I sent him a text yesterday and he called me back and left me a voicemail that he appreciated what we did, and he would spread the word that we’re trying to protect the public.”

Doug Ford did not address it at his Friday morning press conference; he surely will. But late Friday afternoon the province threw open the doors as much as it dared, despite dire warnings from the medical community, and from so many in public health. It used to be restaurants and bars were allowed 50 people indoors and spaced in Orange, and 10 in Red. Now it’s 100 in Orange, and 50 in Red.

Here’s how reckless and thick that is: Ottawa moved to Red on Friday, because their case counts are rising. So their old restaurant and bar limit was 50, and the new limit is 50. Same for Brant County region, Chatham-Kent region, and Leeds, Grenville and Lanark region, starting Monday.

“When your case counts are on the rise, and showing exponential growth, the thing you don’t do is pack more people indoors,” said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, infectious diseases specialist at the University of Toronto and Toronto General Hospital. “A year in, we know who gets infected, we know how they get infected, we know where they get infected. And they get infected when they sit down inside and take off their masks.

“This will just speed up what is probably a march to the next lockdown.”

Indeed, this government seems determined to waltz into no-man’s land on Nov. 10, 1918, or rather, to let other people do it for them. Are restaurant workers vaccinated? No. Will this increase confidence in restaurants enough to significantly increase revenues? Probably not. Restaurants have been running with decreased staff, and now have a choice to make in two days. Logistically, safety-wise, desperation-wise, it’s a bad choice to have to make.

“Not only is this decision harmful to our staff and patrons, but also reeks of desperation,” said David Greenwood, the general manager of The Manchester Pub in Windsor.

Will it likely add enough to what is already a rising case count — driven by more transmissible variants which also send more people to the hospital faster, and for longer, across age groups that weren’t as affected before — which wasn’t being halted by the framework they just weakened?

Sadly, probably, yes. Some people will always do what they are allowed to do.

“I understand that throughout this pandemic we’ve had this reactive tendency, but seeing what we’re seeing right now and saying ease up on what’s in place is pretty astounding,” says epidemiologist Dr. Ashleigh Tuite, of the University of Toronto. “I thought they would leave things, which is not ideal, which is not proactive, but at least won’t make things worse.

“But easing up what isn’t the best framework is nonsensical.”

This is another moment where the worst face of this government revealed itself, and it wasn’t wearing a mask. Failing to invest in second-wave testing when they were told it would be necessary. Fighting Toronto on closures in October. The lunatic framework changes in November.

And after the laudable and effective lockdown and stay-at-home order of Jan. 6 — which finally reversed the climb, at what was nearly the last second — the announcement that with variants rising fast, Ontario would begin to reopen.

And now, loosening restrictions as ICUs are reapproaching their all-time high in Ontario during the pandemic, and field hospitals are being built.

Here we are again. Under the old framework, the variants were in something resembling uncontrolled exponential growth, hidden by the decline of classic COVID. They are now an estimated 56 per cent of all cases, and rising. Last week, Ed Tubb’s Friday evening count of reporting by public health unit was 1,522; this week it is 1,935.

“The numbers will tell, that’s the problem,” said Dr. Peter Juni, the scientific director of the province’s independent volunteer science table, sounding a little resigned. “This is whether we want now short-term pain for long-term gain, and whether we want this long-term gain to happen earlier or later.

“From a sociological standpoint, I think it’s very difficult. I just hope we leverage the outdoor space as much as we can.”

And that’s where the anger at public health re-enters the conversation. Dr. Roumeliotis said one poll taken earlier in the pandemic already showed a third of people not following public health advice. The concession to outdoor dining in Toronto and Peel is an offering to a fed-up public.

So how will this go, with some people’s patience exhausted? That lack of patience is a natural consequence of late and ineffective but life-impacting restrictions for months, and then abandoning the restrictions that were finally working. You burn up the finite co-operation of enough people, and the result is things start to come apart.

“I think it wore people out,” said Roumeliotis.

So you have more people attacking public health, which is one of the last shields we have, now. Vaccines are coming but the variants are ahead of them, which the premier acknowledged that the other day, which tells you maybe it’s his cabinet and caucus driving this, now. If so, that’s worse: it would mean more people to convince.

So the only real question now is exceedingly grim, and sad, and should have been unnecessary: how bad will it have to get before the province shuts everything back down again, for the last time? The answer isn’t known. It won’t be pretty, finding out.

Correction — March 19, 2021: This article has been updated to clarify Dr. Paul Roumeliotis’s title and first quotation.

Bruce Arthur is a Toronto-based columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @bruce_arthur