Case numbers have Manitoba speeding toward health-care system catastrophe, Roussin warns

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This article was published 04/12/2020 (1520 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Public-health officials offered a glimpse Friday of the potential “catastrophic” situations at hospitals in Manitoba if people don’t adhere to strict COVID-19 restrictions.

The compounding effect of new daily triple-digit case numbers is sending the province down a dangerous path, chief provincial public health officer Dr. Brent Roussin said Friday, unveiling models that show Manitoba is headed for big trouble.

The numbers have to come down to avoid a “catastrophic impact on our health-care system,” he said. “They’re more than just numbers.”

As case numbers increase, hospitalizations and deaths follow. The most telling slide in Roussin’s presentation showed how many Manitobans have died from the virus since the start of the pandemic and the exponential increase seen in November.

Right now, for every 48 Manitobans who test positive for COVID-19, three are hospitalized and one dies.

“That’s why we’re trying to reduce our case count,” said Roussin, adding the COVID-19 test-positivity rate is trending too high in all regions of the province.

A PowerPoint presentation illustrated the province’s current case numbers, hospitalizations and deaths, along with mathematical modelling of what those numbers would likely be under four different scenarios.

The scenarios range from “extreme,” with minimal restrictions and poor compliance that leads to a rapid rise in cases to “controlled,” with full lockdown restrictions and good compliance that leads to reduced cases.

The modelling that shows numbers up to Nov. 30 has Manitoba in the second-worst-case scenario — “severe” — with some restrictions and poor compliance leading to increased cases.

December COVID update

The model shows that Manitoba could have reached 825 new cases a day by Dec. 6 if code-red measures had not been imposed Nov. 12. Roussin said he expects the restrictions will remain in place past their Dec. 11 expiry, although they are under review.

The province increased its hospital bed capacity to 3,084 in November, up from 2,457 in March. The number of intensive-care unit beds increased to 173 in November from 72 in March.

If the virus spread rate continues at it its current speed, that still might not be enough, Shared Health nursing chief Lanette Siragusa said.

“We could quickly reach our limits that we can manage,” she said. The province has shifted staff from other areas of the health-care system to respond to the crisis, but the need for beds remains for other, including trauma, stroke, heart-attack and dialysis patients.”

Our capacity is not infinite,” Siragusa said. “Staff is limited…. We need to get those cases down.”

 

carol.sanders@freepress.mb.ca