Daily numbers put unnecessary fear in driver’s seat By: Tom Brodbeck Posted: 7:00 PM CDT Monday, Aug. 17, 2020

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 16/08/2020 (1495 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

As we enter the most crucial period so far in the coronavirus pandemic — the return to school next month for K-12 students — one of the biggest obstacles is the daily preoccupation with COVID-19 case numbers.

It breeds unnecessary fear and anxiety about a disease that’s largely under control in the province.

Manitoba has seen an uptick in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks, including a small increase in the test positivity rate (percentage of people testing positive with the disease). It’s been described as a “surge,” and has caused some to ask why the province isn’t doing more, including making face masks mandatory in indoor public places.

The recent increase in case numbers is relatively small. However, because we’ve been analyzing case numbers with such intense scrutiny since the beginning of the pandemic, we’ve magnified the significance of the increase.

Manitoba still has among the lowest cases per capita among the provinces. Its five-day test positivity rate remains remarkably low, at 1.78 per cent.

Dr. Brent Roussin, the chief provincial public health officer, has said in the past that number would have to hit about three per cent for the province to reinstate restrictions (but likely only if other indicators, such as hospitalization rates and community transmission, also rose significantly).

One of the reasons Manitoba is logging more cases is because the province is testing more — about three times as much as it was earlier this summer. There’s also more community spread of the virus, and there have been several outbreaks, but the greater the testing, the more cases public health officials are going to find.

That’s a good thing, since it improves the chances of containing the virus through contact tracing.

What’s far more important than daily case numbers are hospitalization rates and the number of deaths due to COVID-19. Mitigating both has been the primary goal since the beginning of the pandemic.

Manitoba has performed exceptionally well on both fronts.

The province has had only two COVID-19 deaths since early May. With a total of nine deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, Manitoba has one of the lowest death rates per 100,000 people in Canada, at 0.65. British Columbia is at 3.83, Alberta is at five, and Quebec — highest in the country — is at 67.

Meanwhile, the daily number of people in hospital with COVID-19 hasn’t changed much over the past five months. It was down to zero for a long stretch earlier this summer. There have been 11 or fewer COVID-19 patients in hospital per day so far in August. There were as many as 12 — including six in intensive care — in early April.

No one knew in the early stages of the pandemic how it was going to play out. Which is why all governments in Canada took drastic action, including closing schools and shutting down many businesses. Uncertainty, as well as the need to buy time to bolster hospital capacity, drove the decision-making process.

Whether there are five or 40 new cases a day is of little significance. Manitoba will get more cases and, sadly, there will be more deaths – it’s unavoidable.

Those measures — which were appropriate at the time — also came at a great economic and social cost.

With five months of experience under their belts, public health officials are now taking a different approach to minimizing the spread.

Even though Manitoba’s active case numbers are higher Monday than when the economy was shut down, there’s now far less uncertainty about COVID-19. That allows for more targeted mitigation strategies, like those planned for public schools and the ones already in place in businesses and public places. Manitobans have also changed their behaviour to protect themselves and others. Many are now routinely wearing face masks.

Whether there are five or 40 new cases a day is of little significance. Manitoba will get more cases and, sadly, there will be more deaths — it’s unavoidable. This caseload was entirely expected.

If test positivity numbers and hospitalization rates climb significantly, the province would have little choice but to take further steps to mitigate transmission, including reinstating certain restrictions — but we’re nowhere near that point.

Until we are, we should drop this obsession with daily case numbers and focus more on how to live with a virus that’s going to be around for a very long time.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom has been covering Manitoba politics since the early 1990s and joined the Winnipeg Free Press news team in 2019.

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