Flip-flops look bad on Pallister

Opinion

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This article was published 05/03/2020 (1793 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister’s second flip-flop on the carbon tax — offset by a surprise announcement Thursday he will also cut the PST — has nothing to do with reducing emissions and everything to do with wounded pride.

For the second time in more than two years, Pallister has changed his mind on the carbon tax. The premier initially proposed a flat $25-per-tonne tax in 2017 — claiming if the province didn’t, the federal government would impose its own levy.

It’s an argument that never made any sense, since Ottawa said from the beginning it would “backstop” the carbon tax (starting at $20/tonne in 2019 and rising incrementally to $50/tonne in 2022) in any province that didn’t meet the threshold. There was no wiggle room.

Pallister cancelled his proposed tax in October 2018, after a backlash within the provincial Tory party (and from the public). His new position was to move ahead with the province’s so-called green plan without a carbon levy.

“We say ‘yes’ to a made-in-Manitoba green plan without a carbon tax,” he said at the time.

He then had another change of heart, claiming earlier this year he was “negotiating” with the feds for some type of “made-in-Manitoba” carbon tax that would be less than Ottawa’s impending $50/tonne rate.

The federal government gave no indication it was prepared to accommodate his demands (nor that there were any serious negotiations on the matter). As expected, Ottawa rejected a lower levy.

On Thursday, Pallister flip-flopped again — and the $25/tonne tax was back on the table (with a July 1 start date).

Instead of offsetting the new carbon levy with an income tax cut, as was proposed in the 2018 Manitoba budget, he now plans to couple it with a PST cut. There’s been no explanation why an income tax offset was a good idea in 2018 but not in 2020, demonstrating what little analytical work has gone into the new plan.

The provincial sales tax cut is expected to save taxpayers some $325 million annually; Pallister says the $25/tonne carbon tax will cost Manitobans $285 million.

In 2018, the province claimed the same tax at the same rate would cost $248 million. It’s unclear why that number has increased 15 per cent in just two years; emissions have not increased that much during that period.

For its part, the federal government will now have to decide whether to go ahead with its scheduled increase to $30/tonne in April — or perhaps reduce it to $5/tonne in July, so that together with Pallister’s new tax, it adds up to $30/tonne this year. If so, Ottawa could then increase its tax by $10/tonne next year, and another $10/tonne in 2022, to make good on its pledge to backstop to $50/tonne by 2022.

Manitoba could have two carbon taxes.

How all this will figure into the federal government’s carbon tax rebates this year is anybody’s guess. It’s a mess.

The worst part of all is Pallister’s carbon tax (and Ottawa’s backstop) will do virtually nothing to reduce emissions, as it is too low to change people’s consumption behaviour.

On Thursday, Pallister continued to peddle the false notion his “green plan” will have a significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions: “Our plan will reduce emissions, and we have the science to back it up, by twice as much as the Ottawa backstop plan we have been told we should follow.”

In fact, there is no science to back that stance up. The province has never shown how a $25/tonne carbon tax will reduce emissions by one megatonne over a five-year period, as its government claims.

None of this is about reducing emissions. This is about Pallister trying to score some cheap political points against the federal government.

He’s fumbled the ball so many times on the carbon tax, he’s now looking for a political solution to a series of bad decisions. He’s going to create a new tax and cut another. He’s going to rob Peter to pay Paul to make himself feel better.

This is bad public policy. It’s done on the fly, and has no clear objectives. This is Premier Brian Pallister at his worst.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca