Isolated and disliked, Erin O’Toole has no chance of keeping a grip on the Conservative leadership

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This article was published 01/02/2022 (1677 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

No matter what happens tomorrow — whether Conservative MPs show Erin O’Toole the door or keep him as leader — the result will be a deeply divided caucus and a dead or dying leader at their feet.

MPs expect the vote will be close; each side is predicting victory.

The group of MPs who want to see O’Toole gone hold various grievances about their leader.

Some believe O’Toole’s office leaked disparaging information about Alberta MP Shannon Stubbs to a newspaper and that the leader lied about it to caucus.

Some feel betrayed O’Toole promised to uphold conscience rights during his leadership, only to reverse course during the election campaign and surprise MPs with a unanimous consent motion in Parliament giving swift passage to the Liberals’ conversion therapy ban.

Some are disappointed the party lost seats in Western Canada and failed to crack the suburbs around the Greater Toronto Area. They feel the leader is insufficiently focused on outreach to ethnic communities, and are dismayed he won’t denounce Quebec’s discriminatory Bill 21.

Some just don’t like him. Many, actually. Several Conservatives during the last leadership race told me they chose to support Peter MacKay, despite his pro-choice stance, because they felt he was a better person. In the past week, O’Toole has been called a bully privately, and a liar publicly by his own MPs. Under the cloak of anonymity, they speak of his vindictiveness.

Mostly what unites the dissenters is a belief that they cannot win with O’Toole at the helm. That his flip flops, over the carbon tax, gun control, or even last week’s meeting with truckers, are too frequent. That O’Toole can’t take a stand or keep his message focused. That he lacks authenticity. This view, coupled with his declining approval rating, last week’s whitewash report of his election performance, and the party’s latest fundraising numbers — the worst Q4 result since 2004 — made for a toxic brew.

Those who support O’Toole mostly share the vision he now espouses — a desire to see the party reach towards the political centre to disenchanted blue Liberals and blue-collar New Democrats and a belief that this is key to making inroads in suburban areas and winning government. They want a leader who is pro-choice and believes human activity causes climate change.

Ironically, O’Toole, who ran for his party’s leadership as a “true blue” Conservative and painted MacKay, his opponent, as liberal light, is now dependent on MacKay’s supporters to ensure his leadership survives.

In this group too, however, there are those who dislike the leader. These fence sitters mostly fear what’s next.

A vote that gets rid of O’Toole will likely mean a short leadership race — it is a minority government after all. That benefits leadership contenders that already have a firm grip on the party, a base they can mobilize, such as popular Ottawa-area MP Pierre Poilievre, or Haldimand—Norfolk MP Leslyn Lewis, a favourite amongst social conservatives. There will be little time for newcomers to get organized.

Both Poilievre and Lewis recently promoted their presence at the truck convoy protest. Although both espouse messages of unity, there is a fear shared by some MPs that under their leadership, the party would be catering to a right wing that could hold it hostage just as the convoy has done to Ottawa. Few of these MPs want to see their party co-opted, like the U.S. Republican party, by more extremist elements, further alienating them from mainstream voters.

O’Toole has played to these concerns. In his late-night missive on social media Monday, he told the party there are two roads open to the Conservatives: a dead-end angry, negative, and extreme road that will see the Tories become “the NDP of the right.” And another road, that is inclusive, optimistic, full of ideas and hope. (The suggestion is that this is the road O’Toole will take though it isn’t clear it’s the one he is on.) He welcomed the vote calling it a “time for reckoning,” and urging caucus to settle the issue “Right here. Right now. Once and for all.”

Of course, if he manages to hang on, questions about his leadership won’t be put to rest once and for all.

O’Toole will still face calls by electoral district associations for an earlier leadership review from party members, a petition from Sen. Denise Batters calling for the same; and if those efforts fail, a leadership vote in August 2023. (Though some dissenters fear O’Toole will push this leadership review back arguing that the party shouldn’t be destabilized so close to a possible election.)

Whether he wins or loses Wednesday, O’Toole will still have lost. His caucus will be split; his leadership still challenged. And if he goes on a witch hunt, punishing or turfing more than a third of his MPs, as some fear, his party will be further weakened.

Althia Raj is an Ottawa-based national politics columnist for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @althiaraj