Striking the right budget balance

Manitobans understand that governing is about choices.

They also understand that some of the biggest choices a government makes are the hardest ones, especially when it comes to money.

The NDP government will table its 2026-27 budget March 24 amid real and pressing concerns about health care, affordability and public services stretched thin after years of strain.

Few would dispute that these areas need sustained investment. But just as undeniable is another reality: governments cannot spend without limit and hope the books will somehow balance themselves.

The province’s fiscal picture is deteriorating. The government now projects a $1.6-billion deficit for 2025-26, double the $794-million shortfall estimated in last spring’s budget. Dry conditions that fuelled wildfires and losses at Manitoba Hydro are part of the explanation. But only part.

Health-care costs continue to rise sharply. Education and justice systems face their own pressures. And the government has repeatedly had to pull unbudgeted funds to cover overruns — $1.04 billion late last year for health care and Hydro operations, followed by another $200 million last month, largely for physicians’ services.

No one seriously argues these costs can simply be ignored. Health care, in particular, is not discretionary spending. But relying on last-minute cash infusions and ever-larger deficits is not a sustainable plan.

When the NDP formed government, it pledged to balance the province’s books within its first term. That promise now looks almost certainly unattainable. Pretending otherwise helps no one. What should matter now is whether the government can move meaningfully closer to balance before Manitobans go to the polls in October 2027.

Deficits cannot run in perpetuity without consequences. Borrowing costs rise. More public dollars are diverted to servicing debt instead of delivering services.

And credit rating agencies can lose confidence and downgrade the province’s credit rating (which occurred under the previous NDP government). That would further increase borrowing costs and divert resources away from important areas, such as health care and education.

That is why fiscal responsibility matters, even for a government committed to social investment. Prudence is not austerity. It is an acknowledgment that today’s spending decisions shape tomorrow’s options.

Finance Minister Adrien Sala has promised “big-ticket affordability items” in the upcoming budget, aimed at helping Manitobans with groceries, mortgages and rent. The government has already capped the price of one-litre milk cartons and is considering extending price controls to larger jugs. It has launched a grocery study to explore ways to lower food prices.

The NDP has an opportunity in this budget to level with Manitobans. That means acknowledging the balancing promise is out of reach, setting realistic targets to reduce the deficit over the next two years, and explaining how spending priorities will be aligned with fiscal capacity.

It also means demonstrating discipline beyond headline announcements — by scrutinizing programs for effectiveness, controlling administrative costs and resisting the temptation to announce popular but expensive measures without funding plans.

This year’s budget must show where the NDP government plans to implement meaningful cost controls, ones that align with the province’s capacity to raise revenue. Fiscal honesty and transparency should be a key part of this budget.

More than 25,000 Manitobans have participated in pre-budget consultations. That suggests a public appetite for engagement on fiscal issues. Manitobans know government cannot fix everything at once. But they do expect it to manage the province’s finances intelligently and responsibly.

March 24 will reveal whether this government is prepared to do that balancing act — not perfectly, but credibly.