The federal NDP: digging out, or digging deeper?

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 09/09/2024 (704 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Perhaps it’s just a case of not wanting to be tied too tightly to what looks like a sinking ship.

But last Thursday’s decision by federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh to break his party away from supporting the federal Liberal minority government creates a whole new dynamic in Ottawa.

There are a variety of arguments. By being more of a free agent, Singh puts himself much more into the media mix. Instead of simply being asked if the latest issue is enough to drop the supply and confidence agreement with the Trudeau government, he’ll be able to distinguish himself from the Liberals, and hopefully carve out a better position for his party, and some clear separation from the government.

It also means the NDP is no longer hamstrung for being a de-facto supporter of absolutely every Liberal fumble and misstep — of which there have been plenty.

But there’s also a significant loss to the NDP and its policy goals: as a party with only a limited number of seats, the NDP was able to compel action on such policy goals as dental care and pharmacare, something that isn’t going to happen anymore.

In a set deal, both sides know what they’re committing to.

That can’t be expected to last if every single issue and piece of legislation is going to be looked at on a case-by-case basis, with the NDP deciding over and over and over again whether to support the Trudeau government this time. (On Thursday, Singh wasn’t even willing to state clearly what circumstances would be considered serious enough for the NDP to vote to bring down the government.)

It won’t buy the NDP support from the Liberals for NDP policies, because they’re now, in essence, just blackmailing the Trudeau government by holding them to ransom, with the Liberal government unable to know what the next demand will be.

There’s also the timing: Singh’s decision to split from the Liberals came after significant pressure from Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, with Poilievre launching a new moniker for the NDP leader, deeming him to be “Sellout Singh” over the NDP’s failure to break ranks with the Liberals over the government’s actions halting strike and lockout actions in the current railway labour dispute.

Poilievre’s attacks on Singh — including the hypocritical charge that Singh’s just hanging on for a full parliamentary pension, when Poilievre already has that exact pension in his own back pocket — suddenly look as if they left an effective mark.

The Conservatives may have been targeting Singh more directly because of the upcoming Elmwood-Transcona byelection, where the NDP held the seat before the incumbent resigned to take a position with the Kinew government.

(Either that, or the Conservatives have decided the Liberals are sufficiently dead in the water and that the Tories should expend their stocks of buzzword ammunition where there’s more to gain.)

But that all leads to a particular question.

Whither the NDP?

Having cut themselves away from the Liberals and any ability to shape change, are they anything but adrift? Their position in public opinion polls right now puts them in third place, behind the Bloc Québécois, with at most a year to try to recover — and you just know Poilievre will shout “Sellout Singh” every time the NDP supports the Liberals in a confidence motion.

Are the New Democrats digging themselves into a deeper hole, or diligently digging themselves out of one?

Unfortunately, the optics on that are pretty much the same right now.

They’re standing in a big hole.