Axworthy endorsement bad for Liberals

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This article was published 09/09/2023 (974 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

“Et tu Brute?” — Caesar’s final words to Brutus, the friend who betrayed him.

Lloyd Axworthy has many chapters in his public life.

This week, on the first day of the 2023 provincial election campaign in Manitoba, he wrote a new one — “Brutus Axworthy.”

In a glowing reference letter for Wab Kinew, published as an NDP ad in the Free Press, Axworthy showered praise for Wab Kinew as a human being, a teacher, and a public servant.

When reading the letter I was wondering whether he was praising himself as much as he was offering a bouquet to Kinew. The letter began with his citing of three political figures he said he admired for their capacity to work outside their political bubbles: Liberal Lester Pearson; Progressive Conservative Duff Roblin; and Stanley Knowles of the NDP.

Anyone reading the letter was compelled to ask whether Axworthy saw himself in a league with statesmen like Roblin, Pearson, and Knowles, three men who represented three different political parties, who were able to play well with others.

But whatever Axworthy may be imagining about his place in history, none of those three men would ever have offered a full-throated endorsement of the leader of another political party on the first day of an election campaign.

It needs to be said the NDP did not buy the full-page ad in this newspaper because Axworthy was looking in the mirror and seeing Duff Roblin. They were paying to have Manitobans read a glowing reference for Wab Kinew, from a big-L Liberal who might convince provincial Liberal voters to switch to the NDP.

The provincial Liberals in Manitoba have been in a decades-long drought. The last time they were relevant, you were listening to the Pet Shop Boys on the radio.

Sharon Carstairs’ provincial Liberals won 20 seats in 1988. But not long after that peak performance, the Liberals went for decades without seating enough MLAs for a table of four. In some years they had a caucus of one, Lonesome Jon Gerrard.

Provincially, the Liberals usually got a little more than 20 per cent of the provincial vote. Most Liberal voters who drifted away, went to the NDP.

That’s precisely the pivot the Kinew NDP is looking for in this round. Even though provincial Liberal support is low, if Axworthy’s endorsement of Kinew helps to drain the Liberal bathtub in South Winnipeg battlegrounds, that could help flip PC seats and install Premier Wab Kinew.

Knowledgeable readers may be pushing back right now, thinking endorsements are overrated.

It is true that 10 years ago Lloyd Axworthy’s endorsement of his brother Bob did not get the younger brother over the finish line in a provincial Liberal leadership contest that little brother lost to Winnipeg lawyer Rana Bokhari.

But this endorsement is different. The stakes are higher and the timing couldn’t be more impactful.

One of the reasons the Liberals have struggled for decades is a lack of resources. They don’t raise much money. They cannot afford multiple full-age ads. Anyone who tells you advertising isn’t important isn’t a fountain of wisdom. Ads are critical in giving messages altitude, especially with undecided swing voters.

This week, the NDP launched its campaign with a four-page insert in this newspaper. The lead page was the Axworthy endorsement of Kinew. That opened the gate to a highly effective NDP ad.

The KiSS (Keep it Simple, Stupid) principle is always important. The NDP kept faith with the principle, making three simple promises that have boatloads of public support.

The most important one that distinguished the party from the PCs was a pledge to bring back emergency wards to three hospitals which lost them under PC governance. Even though the Pallister PCs were following a recommendation in a report by a consultant hired by a previous NDP government, the execution of the plan required kid gloves — not oven mitts. The transition was clumsy and chaotic, shredding public trust in the PC provincial government.

No observer can doubt the PCs have made mistakes in the last seven years which corroded credibility and indeed their chances for re-election. If they lose on Oct. 3 it will be largely their fault. Still, it’s hard not to ponder Lloyd Axworthy’s political play.

The NDP wasn’t advertising a political portrait by Duff Roblin. It was much closer to Brutus.

Charles Adler is a longtime political commenter and podcaster.

charles@charlesadler.com