Tories shooting themselves in the foot with tough-on-crime campaign

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This article was published 08/08/2023 (1099 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The problem with the Manitoba Tories’ decision to make violent crime one of their top campaign issues going into this fall’s provincial election is they have a lousy record on it.

Premier Heather Stefanson’s government has been shouting from the rooftops in recent months about plans to crack down on violent criminals to keep Manitobans safe in their communities. They also promise to tackle the “root causes” of crime by improving addictions treatment.

Targeting crime and its root causes can be a good political strategy for an opposition party, especially these days. Crime rates have soared in Canada in recent years. Any government in power during a period of escalating crime is vulnerable to criticism.

However, the Manitoba Tories are not in opposition, they’re in government. They’ve been in office for the past seven years while violent crime, including homicides, robberies and aggravated assaults, has skyrocketed. By focusing on crime rates in the upcoming election, they will be drawing attention to their less-than-flattering justice record.

Not surprisingly, the provincial government blames Ottawa for the surge in crime, claiming falsely that rising crime rates have been caused largely by the federal government’s changes to bail laws. One of the many flaws in that argument is Canada’s recent crime wave predates the 2019 changes (the recent crime wave began in 2014).

More importantly, the criminal code amendments in question simply codified previous Supreme Court of Canada rulings on bail, which affirmed provisions in the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Those were binding on lower courts long before Parliament caught up to the top court’s rulings with legislative amendments.

There is zero evidence to support the bogus claim that rising crime rates have been caused by changes to bail laws. Whatever shortcomings exist today with the administration of bail have been around a long time.

There is zero evidence to support the bogus claim that rising crime rates have been caused by changes to bail laws.

Crime rates go through cycles. Governments get too much blame when they rise and too much credit when they fall. While government policies around income redistribution, addictions and mental health treatment, racism, court services and other areas have an impact on criminal activity over time, the cause and effect is difficult to discern.

It’s virtually impossible to prove with evidence that any single measure causes crime to rise or fall.

That doesn’t stop politicians from playing politics with justice policies. However, if a political party seeking re-election, such as Manitoba’s Progressive Conservatives, plans to venture into that realm, it better have a solid justice record to stand on. If it doesn’t, it opens itself to criticism.

The PC government’s record on crime is abysmal. Violent crime has not only soared in Manitoba in recent years, it’s far worse in the province than the rest of the country. Manitoba’s crime rate has accelerated faster than the national average and it’s showing no signs of relenting. That’s not because of changes to bail laws, which have the same application across the country.

Since the Tories came into power seven years ago, the violent crime severity index has increased 37 per cent in Manitoba (from 153.8 in 2016 to 210.9 per cent in 2022). That’s well above the national average of 27 per cent. The crime severity index, which measures overall crime severity, jumped 14 per cent in Manitoba last year, far higher than the national average of four per cent. The Tories can’t pin that on Ottawa.

If anything, it’s great fodder for the Tories’ political opponents, who can — fairly or unfairly — accuse the PC government of allowing crime to fester under its watch.

The Tories’ record on addressing the root causes of crime isn’t much better. Most criminologists agree that one of the main drivers behind the recent spate of crime is the escalation of substance abuse and the proliferation of dangerous street drugs. The response to that by the PC government has been unimpressive.

A provincial auditor general’s report released last month showed access to addictions treatment in Manitoba is lacking and has caused long wait times for treatment. There has been a shortage of investments in addictions treatment and a failure to provide people suffering from addictions with timely care. The more attention the Tories bring to those shortcomings, the more ammunition they hand their political opponents.

Tough-on-crime politics can work under the right conditions. However, for the Tories, justice is more of a liability than an effective campaign strategy going into this election.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.

Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.